Grain Spreads: Corn Counting

Sean Lusk General Commentary

Commentary

New-crop Corn acreage down slightly with yields down 1.6 bushels per acre 10 175.4 versus the average trade guess at 176. The lower yield pushed production by almost 150 million bushels from July. New-crop feed use and exports both cut by 25 million bushels. Overall ending stocks for 2022/23 Corn down 82 million bushels from last month coming in at 1.388 billion bushels which was a bit more than the trade was expecting. World Corn carryout loses 6.25 million metric tons with production down a similar number. Ukraine production rises by 5 MMT but U.S. output loses 3.7 MMT and the E.U. falls by a sharp 8 MMT due to drought in my opinion. The trade will now look to the industry crop tour week starting the week of August 22nd to confirm declining corn yields, while getting an idea on soybean pod counts. That said, Monday nights condition report will weigh especially if conditions for corn and beans stabilize and even move higher on the good to excellent category. 

Trade Ideas

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Risk/Reward

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Sean Lusk

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