Soy Complex
It’s as if the tariff talk never occurred last week with this push higher in beans and we are back to trading weather events both at home and abroad along with demand. Speaking of demand,net sales for future shipment from last Thursdays export sales report came in at 1,133,000 MT for 2017/2018 and up noticeably from the previous week. Despite an announcement from China on future tariffs last Wednesday morning, the trade saw China in for 747 K metric tons of the export sales total accounting for two-thirds of the sales. Note: these sales were made prior to tariff announcement. However, just this morning China announced a purchase of 232,500 metric tons for future shipment. Last Wednesday saw China make another sizable purchase securing 454 K metric tons. Only 130 K of that total was for old crop or 17/18. With basis levels rising in Brazil and China, the market gapped open higher last night which pushed May beans to trade 20 cents higher before profit taking set in prior to tomorrow’s monthly WASDE report release at 11 am. Pre-report estimates have ending stocks coming in at 574 million bushels. This is sizable folks, and 19 million higher than the March report. World numbers come in at 92.9 million metric tons vs 92.4 last month. Going into tomorrows report there is a bullish case and bearish case to be made. I’m back to watching meal. Should May futures fall and settle on a weekly close below 385.0 a short ton, look to sell beans. Or if we hold, look to buy May beans on a close over 1048.0. I gave a buy in July/Dec meal at 14.0 over on Friday. We closed just below 12.0 today. It needs to hold 8.20 to the downside or it will work lower in my opinion. Watch meal for beans. Late weakness in meal today set beans back to settle right at resistance. Trade the charts. If you would like me to email them to you or for trade ideas give me a call at 888 391 7894 or email me at slusk@walshtrading.com
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