What a difference a week can make…New Contract Highs for Live Cattle today! Are Feeders far behind?
The information and opinions expressed below are based on my analysis of price behavior and chart activity
Tuesday, April 28, 2026
June Live Cattle (Daily)
Today, June Live Cattle closed at a new contract high settlement, 253.500, gaining 4.550 on the day. Following a brief technical correction that started mid-month, Cattle prices have rebounded very strong. We’ve seen the Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports go by on the last 2 Friday’s. I don’t think either could be classified as bearish, as the herd (# of head) and what we have stored in the freezer (frozen beef) continued to decline. Prices in the June Live Cattle retraced to the 62% Fibonacci level (not pictured, 241.511) drawn from the March low to the early-April high. And now we’ve set new highs!
Feeders (August is front month now) haven’t quite rebounded to new highs, but they do appear to be headed in that direction. August’s settlement of 373.075, up 4.800 today, leaves another 4.975 higher before we see new contract highs there. They certainly appear to be headed in that direction, to my eye, at least.
You may notice a few things by looking at the chart above. The short-term moving averages, 5- and 10-day (blue/red) are still in a bearish configuration, but barring a sharply lower move on the open tomorrow, I would expect them to make a bullish crossover tomorrow morning. The further out contracts in August, October and December have made that bullish crossover today. Today’s those averages are at 246.850 and 246.992, respectively, offering potential support levels. The longer-term averages shown on the chart, the 50-, 100- and 200-day (green, grey and purple) haven’t been tested since March, when both the 50-day and 100-day acted as support. All three of those averages are inclined toward higher prices, in my opinion. The nearest is the 50-day at 239.007. Stochastics (bottom sub-graph) approached oversold last week, but never quite reached a fully oversold condition. Now that indicator is ticking back into overbought territory, but hasn’t yet made it there. Trade Volume of 37,000 contracts today, indicates to me that buyers are willing to step up and push prices higher. This was the highest volume since March 10th, and easily the highest over the past month. I think this week’s Commitment of Traders report may show managed money (funds) have added to their overall long position, pegged last week just shy of 135,000 contracts.
The price weakness last week may have been due to speculation that the US/MX border was going to be re-opened. However, Ag Secretary Rollins cancelled her trip to Arizona, planned for last Friday, on Thursday of last week. As far as I know, she hasn’t said why. My guess is that the higher incidences of New World Screwworm in Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas may have changed her mind.
Sale Barns across the US continue to see record high prices for the lighter weight cattle. I’m even hearing talk of $4.00 sales for Live Cattle (dressed) happening today. We’ll see if that hits the USDA summary tomorrow. Cash prices and demand for cattle to feed out remain high, with no real signs of slowing. Imports of beef are setting records, but demand from US consumers has not slowed in any significant way. And with this year being our 250th birthday, I would expect strong retail demand through at least the 4th of July.
Aggressive and well-margined traders may do well to consider long futures positions in either Live or Feeder Cattle. Perhaps an entry near the previous high of 252.000 in June Live Cattle would work well. For an upside target, it seems likely to me that 260.000 would be a reasonable target. If Feeders are your thing, perhaps an entry against Monday’s high of 369.000 ore the round-number support at 370.000 would work well. An upside target there would be about 10.000 higher, near 380.000. AS I don’t know your account size or risk-tolerance, I’ll leave the protective Sell Stops up to you. If you need suggestions for additional support/resistance levels or specific option strategies, feel free to reach out, my contact info is below!
June Live Cattle and August Feeder Cattle (Weekly)
Moving average support has held on the weekly charts for both June Fats and August Feeders. You may notice that prices are back above the 5-week average on both charts. The 10-week average was even tested as support in Feeders last week. The weekly charts are still in a bullish configuration. There is still potential of a double-top in Feeders (Oct and Apr highs) but Live Cattle don’t have that set up and I would expect Feeders to set new highs, like the Fats have, very shortly. Stochastics corrected a little of their overbought status, but now appear to be headed back toward overbought.
We still have less cattle here in the US and more people to feed. I would maintain a bullish stance in the Cattle markets. Keep an eye out for news of the border re-opening (seems unlikely to me) or our Commander-in-Chief making comments about high beef prices again. That also seems unlikely to me, as I’m guessing he has some other things to focus on, at the moment.
Jefferson Fosse Walsh Trading
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