There is much going on daily creating back and forth type trade. The soy broke off highs today because the Tariff concerns are still there. Talk of 25% being implemented IF the govt and china don’t work out their issues. There will be a point when the market needs to focus on the fundamentals. The medium term and long term should prove to be bearish. The global stocks are growing. The demand base is there, but it needs to be. The Argentinian meal shortage will eventually play itself out. When that transpires, the markets will need to look at the overall supply situation. I fear I sound like a broken record daily. I just don’t see the bull story. In addition, I think we will see an additional 1 million bean acres in the June 29th acreage report. Much trading before then. I also don’t buy the thought that China will run in and buy huge quantities of extra beans from the US, even when the deal is settled. There is a mass increase of oilseed production projected into the 2018/2019 crop years.
The Corn was under pressure. This was due, I suppose. The Corn is still in a strong position given 1) the acreage, 2) the projected drawdown in US stocks, 3) the much tighter global scenario. This all leaves the price susceptible to further appreciation with any weather problems. The 2019 crop year may change and offer a more ample supply. However, it takes time to get there.
” NO MANS KNOWLEDGE HERE CAN GO BEYOND HIS EXPERIENCE ” JOHN LOCKE
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh, President, Walsh Trading
800-993-5449
jwalsh@walshtrading.com