The USDA will release production estimates on Thursday. This report will be of importance, in my opinion. The expectation is for a larger yield, approaching a record. The carry will continue to rise to unprecedented levels if the numbers continue to climb. The global picture remains much the same. The Brazilian is way ahead on planting with some key areas …
Resumption of Harvest
The National Weather Service forecast of cooler and drier than normal in the Heartland in the October 13 to 17 period is a small reason for today’s weakness…………………………………………………..We have experienced fund short covering ahead of the USDA Production and Supply/Demand Reports on Thursday and some analysts believe that the grain markets have ripe for funds to increase participation in a …
Harvest Headaches/Seeding/USDA Report
It’s starting to look like it’s not going to be a cake walk with harvesting corn and beans………………………Wet today and the radar shows systems coming in every few days and then the National Weather Service in its 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day forecast suggests that the western half of the corn belt might be cooler than normal …
AG TIME key levels
The soy traded both sides. A few thoughts to consider. The markets have rallied off strong demand outside of China for US beans. This buying spree may be coming to an end on the board. To go higher the fundamental picture really is not in place in my opinion. I have spoken of looking at the 2019 nov beans above …
Managed Inflation Expectations, Bonds to Cattle
Good Pre Unenjoyment Thurs, Unemployment out Friday. I think we running a little hot. Watch wages. Bonds get tattooed on 4th olive buy attempt, 139.23, a low a couple times UNTIL ITS NOT. Long term macro opinion is wildly bullish inflation. I quoted 2.97% low tick for months but now long term interest rates are up over 13% to 3.37% …
Harvest Delay Headaches
Traders are talking about the possibility of higher incidents of field loss in beans and corn as Mother Nature appears to be less cooperative as the weather forecasts are suggesting wetter than normal conditions prevailing for the next two weeks……………………………………………Over all, we have been fortunate, to date, with extremely beneficial rain events yet, a week or two of dryness would …
AG TIME – Watch the Weather
The soy had a rally of late. Perhaps this is coming to a close. I have suggested to look at Nov 2019 about 920 to start hedging. It is conceivable that the market could offer two cycles of sell off, and rally there. It is my belief 920 will look like a rich price. Regarding market thoughts. The US will …
Chomping at the Bit
The National Weather Service is suggesting that the eastern half of the Heartland has a better chance of keeping the combines rolling in its 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day forecasts than the western half of the Heartland……………………………Harvest is still foremost on our minds and we are hearing of a few reports of less than stellar yields …
Hurry Up and Wait
There’s still a lot of harvest to complete and some trading firms and some farmers are starting to report that yields are very good to excellent to humongous on corn and beans . This might show up in the October 11 USDA report yet, we’ve been disappointed before as the government might report what the government wants to report at …
AG TIME – Trade Deal Day
The markets rallied today. the focus was the new trade deal(s) between the US and Canada. Also the deal with Mexico. Another victory for the Trump administration. Now on to Europe and the China situation. This may take a bit of time. Especially the China portion. But who knows. The report Friday added more to the soy balance. In my …