The Chinese are announcing their measures. In my opinion, this is all about saving face. It is my contention we hold the cards. We are the engine for China’s economic growth. Period. Without the compulsive consumerism of the American public China would be in real trouble. It is my belief that China is closer to a real slowdown than the …
AG Recap
The Soy was up early and eased towards the close. There are alot of considerations. The acreage was a surprise. This obviously was a reason to push higher. the outlook going forward will be dependant on domestic supplies and the ability for the US to compete in the export arena. The Argentinian situation is dialed in. The question now is …
Grain Spreads
Soy Complex Last Thursday’s crop report resulted in major surprises for not only soybeans but for corn and spring wheat as well. Given that the report was at month and quarter end and in front of a three day weekend, the volatility following its 11 am release didn’t disappoint. The big surprise was the cut in prospective soybean acres for …
AG Outlook
The Soy complex struggled today, led by beans and meal. The USDA report surprised with acreage. A question. Historically high carry , with historically high prices relative to stocks, and we will plant less. OK, Looking forward. The Bean Carry with a trend yield and a decent growing season will still net a 500 carry. the Next SA crop will …
Livestock Report
Live Cattle The June Live Cattle contract made another new low for the down move on Wednesday, March 27, 2018. It traded down to 104.50, near the low end of the 104.85 – 104.20 support zone. It rallied off the new low to the high of the day at 106.425, just above resistance (106.025). Once again the rally failed; as …
Ag Opportunities and Risk
The Soy complex is really caught here with many crosswinds. If played properly there is opportunity. The opportunity can disappear in the blink of a eye. The Meal was on fire today. The oil share retreating to 29.3%. The meal is rallying on the thought thatthe Arg crop is low and meal exports are declining. True! The Chinese are looking …
Ag
Quiet day overall. President Trump slapped some tariffs . This had little effect. The private guesses on acreage are coming in. Bean acres 1-2 million more. Corn one million less on average. The weather patterns in Arg are wetter . Some are adding a few bushels back. Remains to be seen. The export program from Brazil will cut into the …
AG
The Beans and Meal finished the day with modest gains. The market is looking at rainfall in ARG. The Brazilizn crop is being harvested on a very quick pace. The availability is high and the sales have been huge. Meaning the Brazilian exports are moving. The next three to four months the US will take a back seat. The one …
Ag Recap Volatility
The Soy complex was under pressure. The beans and meal were the leaders. The market is responding to a couple things,in my opinion. First, Argentina received rains. Second, the market appears concerned that the Presidents tarrifs could cause some trade issues and possible retaliation. Last, the export sales were smaller than anticipated and that is causing concern. The question is …
Ag Recap
The Bean market was unable to push to new lows over the last two sessions. Now we are awaiting the weekend and a look at the Argentinian moisture levels. In my opinion the markets look for the news they want. Meaning we have been rallying based on the weather, if the funds want to buy they will site the weather. …