The Chinese are announcing their measures. In my opinion, this is all about saving face. It is my contention we hold the cards. We are the engine for China’s economic growth. Period. Without the compulsive consumerism of the American public China would be in real trouble. It is my belief that China is closer to a real slowdown than the markets have dialed in. The Chinese have gone from importing 2,3,4, million tons of beans 15 years ago to 97 million now. This has been crazy growth. Doesn’t that growth at some point at the very least stall and move sideways? Will we need to have 105 million imported there next year to keep prices elevated? I am a big fan of exports, however we are producing alot of soy and the carryovers are growing. Despite a record demand. The oilseed carryovers are growing in general. How many times in the last 40 years have we had elevated prices like this with the stocks to usage ratios we have? Again, I like a bull market as much as the next person. I think we are fabricating ideas now to feed a bull that doesn’t exist. At least not today in the Soy. It is my belief the producer should use these 2018 prices and hedge. The 2019 above $10.00 was a hedge. I openly have said that here for some time now. The US is in the position of saying we will regain our historic perspective in the world. This will create some tension and certainly price volatility. It appears the Bio Fuel Anti Dumping against Argentina and Malaysia has been enacted. Not much focus on this. Let’s see if this effects the oilshare which continues to take a pounding.
Be Well, John Walsh, President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
800 993 5449