Let’s start with the outside markets. The Dollar specifically. The dollar is exhibiting strength. This strength should continue. This has a profound effect on the ag sector. Especially beans at present. It is no secret I am bearish the soy. The markets are oversupplied. And this will continue. It is my belief the meal too is overvalued and the market …
AG TIME – WISHING ON A STAR
The beans reached the $10.00 level and are bouncing because, because, oh yes, yes, the Chinese are speaking with the US! The break this past few weeks has less to do with the news and more to do with the reality of the market. The government has demand overstated. The bean sales are some 200 million less. Not because of …
AG TIME CONTRARIAN PAYED TODAY
The beans and meal were under pressure today. It is my contention that the USDA report was off in many key areas. Detailed in yesterdays writing. The old crop bean supply. HUGE, both domestic and globally. the new crop in my opinion is understated. This could be a significant amount. The Chinese economy is slowing a bit. The Hog sector …
AG TIME – IT MAY PAY TO BE CONTRARIAN
The USDA released their report. The screams of bullishness. It is important to separate the beans from corn here, because I feel much differently about them. The USDA added to the global carry, now 92 mmt. Huge. The new crop is reduced to 87 mmt. I have some issues with this and really am questioning the reasoning behind this. The …
AG TIME CORN IN LEADERSHIP ROLE
The markets will await tomorrows usda report. In my humble opinion this report will be significant to the macro outlook of the marketplace. The soybeans remained under pressure today while oilshare gained back a bit. Tomorrow should confirm the ample supply of both old crop and new crop bean supplies. the market will start to focus on a couple things …
AG TIME – JUST MARKING TIME
The funds were buyers today on “turn around Tuesday.” The markets made an attempt to rebound after yesterday’s trouncing. A couple factors to watch. The dollar continues to exhibit strength. Considering the record tax intake to the Treasury, the economic outlook continues to impress. This should continue to fuel strength in the US dollar. This will impact the AG sector …
Livestock Report
Live Cattle On Monday May 7th, 2018, the June Live Cattle contract continued its consolidation between the April 30th high (107.825) and the May 1st low (103.825). The Monday trade took place with a high of 106.275 and the low at 104.85. It settled near the low at 105.175. The high was just above the key level at106.025 and the …
AG TIME MACRO CHANGES AHEAD ?
The beans and meal were under sincere pressure all session. The Chinese US trade conflict is cited as the reason. Perhaps it is the catalyst. However, it is my contention that there are other considerations afoot. The domestic carry has been growing, and will continue. The global supply is 20-25 mmt larger than 2 years ago. This is not bullish. …
AG TIME moving in the right direction
The beans came under pressure today. The realization that the Chinese delegation has nothing finalized is not a bullish input. The US sales to China are dismal at best. This is typically the time of year that SA dominates. The Brazilian is exporting alot. The meal has been under pressure. the last two sessions. This needs to be watched closely. …
AG TIME – lots of questions
The beans were lower early on concerns over China, a lack of purchases, and a large percentage of unshipped beans for old crop. At the end of the day nothing has changed but the price. Beans were able to mount a significant turn around and close 10 CENTS higher. There is hope the US delegation to China can come away …