The beans have broken sharply. The talk is that the tariff threats are the reason. It is my contention that the bean and soy complex in general is bearish. It would appear today that we have marked a low. This may be temporary in nature. The US will impose the crippling tariffs on July 6th. It is my belief that …
AG TIME
The beans have flat lined a bit here to digest the relationship between the US and China. It is my opinion that the Chinese will give further and a long term deal will be reached. however, to what end. the rhetoric continues to look for every reason except for the obvious for the break. The world is awash in oilseeds. …
AG TIME – Bear on the Move
The soy was led lower by beans and meal today. After review of the USDA report yesterday. I must say that I was not bullish the bean numbers. To the contrary. I see some real potential mistakes. First, it is probable that the USDA has over stated the exports by 50-100 mil bu. I don’t buy the story the Chinese …
AG TIME summer thoughts
The usda is out of the way. This report is important in my opinion and opens the door for hedging opportunities. The usda lowered the 18/19 domestic carry to 385. This may open the door for a bit of a bounce that in my opinion presents a hedging opportunity. The global numbers remain very large. In addition the Brazilian crop …
AG TIME
The soy was weak, yet again led by the meal market. The weather has been good on the surface with plenty of moisture received through key growing regions of the belt. We now are back at support in the beans at 950. The USDA will release a supply and demand tomorrow, then the acreage at the end of the month. …
AG TIME – Summer Market
The soy was down nominal again today. The bean exports are lagging. The Chinese are buying Brazilian. The real has moved into a position that makes it difficult to not sell into the export arena. All aspects are working against the beans at present. This trend should continue and can open the door for further declines. As I have stated, …
AG TIME structural changes
The beans and meal are under serious pressure. This creates structural damage to both charts. The pendulum is swinging in my opinion. The Chinese are selling beans from there reserves. The Brazilian has supplied almost all recent beans. The estimates for next years SA crops are on the rise due to the extreme currency differences between the US. It is …
AG TIME
The market was lackluster today. The nearby beans held the 9.97-10.00 level. This may prove important in the near term. The Chinese demand has been satisfied from Brazil recently. The next 2-3 months may see a pick up out of the US. Apparently, I say apparently, the China delegation has offered the US an additional 70 billion worth of new …
AG TIME
The weekend bore no fruit with the US and China. The beat goes on. It has been my belief that beans are overvalued. We now have moved back to $10.00 This has been a key level and may offer support given the early date on the calendar. The planting has been swift. The market will eye the acreage total at …
AG TIME – Fear and Reality
The soy traded both sides today. The oil share gained back a modest amount. There is much fear regarding all the trade tensions. It is my belief that ultimately that is noise. The reality of the market is that beans are off to a good start. It is probable that there could be an increase in acres. The Argentinian situation …