The bean market down yet again. The weather remains fairly beneficial. The title here today is what I am attempting to figure out. It is my belief that the markets can act irrational for a period of time. It is also my belief that the markets ultimately are driven by the supply and demand. The stocks to usage ratio is …
AG TIME
The soy continues under pressure. The 6th is the deadline for China and the US. This whole scenario has shifted some scenarios into play. First the markets in my opinion are over supplied. Given the weather, the global carry, prices were due this break. Trump will play hard ball if China does not give on the trade imbalance. I really …
AG TIME short and long term
The USDA report out of the way. There were no major surprises, just confirmations of what is known. The soybean stocks are confirmed a record at this time. This is of course significant and is a continuation of the growth in oilseed stocks in general. This stock number is not due to China. Rather production growth. The acreage was increased …
AG TIME – Good Things Coming
The beans traded both sides. Tomorrow is the USDA report. All the ex bulls now think the market can’t rebound due to the lack of dialogue with China. Perhaps they are correct. The market has broken a lot. I have expected that. I believe it may be the wrong time of year to press the short side. Don’t misunderstand – …
AG TIME
A two sided trade today in beans. The acreage is the next important aspect. The weather has been very ideal. Although it is important to note that the wet weather may be causing some concerns in some areas. This may be nothing in the long run. There is a suggestion of some heat coming in. This will be monitored closely. …
AG TIME acreage next big thing
The next major consideration will be acreage which is released friday. I dont have alot of new insights today. The market has experienced a significant break. Now, the market needs to digest this before the acreage report. It is also a time of year where the weather will become important if only for a psychological reason. We are due a …
AG TIME
The market revived the downtrend with more talk of tariffs. This is going to be realized within the next two weeks as the deadline is july 6th. It is my personal belief that China will take steps to give Trump something he will accept. I dont believe that China can afford a trade war. There is to much risk for …
AG TIME
The soy rebounded sharply today. This was due given the recent break. the market will have concerns over the trade wars going forward. There still is a underlying theme that there is a friendly market out there. My report yesterday suggested to take defense up with profits on net short positions. It is possible to rally into the USDA report …
AG TIME time to be nimble
The soy continues to break, the beans and meal both. This is significant. I have been bearish,not due to the rhetoric and trade spat. But, because the numbers from a historic perspective warrant lower prices. I do believe history is the great equalizer. All things happen again. Having said all that I believe it is time to be cautious. Everything …
AG TIME
Two sided trade today. there are alot of considerations here. The market has broken alot over concerns on the tariffs. This is a significant scenario and will have implications. The largest concern I have looking forward is the production growth. We are growing global carry overs in spite of record demand. Looking at this years crop. I feel we will …