Looking ahead the wheat market gets to decipher the stocks report on September 28 and then the Supply/Demand estimates in October, November and December and then the mother of all reports in January 2019 when we’ll get the final production figures, supply/demand, stocks in-all-positions as of December 1, 2018 and winter wheat seeding……………………………………………. We’ll also work through the …
AG TIME – Move The Calendar Up
The soy is getting a bounce today. There are a couple reasons this could be transpiring. There may be some bottom picking. The market has broken a lot. Another scenario could be a thought that the China US relations could find some common ground. Food for thought. Let’s look at some real life scenarios playing out. The Brazilian planting is …
AG TIME – Numbers Piling Up
The soy is under pressure. The Trump administration is adding 200 billion worth of tariffs. China will retaliate. This certainly is an issue. however, the biggest issue in my opinion is the overproduction. The global production continues to expand. Given the proposed demand, it will become very difficult to draw these stocks down. I find it perplexing and almost disingenuous …
Grinding
The harvest grind in corn and beans is upon us and might be fast and furious or slow and sputtering depending upon what Mother Nature decides…………………………… Last night’s progress reports revealed that corn and bean harvest is a little ahead of normal and winter wheat seeding just slightly behind the 5 year average…………………………………………………. I sense that no one wants to …
Olive Line
ARP here MARKET THOUGHTS WITH THE OLIVE LINE The morning started off with friction. As reported by CNN syria accidently shot down a russian military plane. There were no survivors. Syria blames Israel. -First day of new tariffs and the S and P is higher. Yesterday the nasdaq was slipping under support. I continue to favor the short side of …
Olive Line Signals
GOOD DAY ARP HERE LIVESTOCK fc- The olive line fri sold off late back to the olive line sell. Important? Olive line sells in the fc above at 124, Call to discuss how to trade the ols lc- The market is over the olive line sell I am attempting a bullish thought into year end in the lc. 117.40 dec …
Serpentine
One of my favorite films is the 1979 rendition of “The In-Laws” and after the Generalissimo/Senor Pepe scene the Serpentine scene stands out as the most memorable……………………………Trading and hedging grains and oilseeds is relatable as it could be looked at as the Theater of the Absurd……….Senor Pepe………………………….and we are always trying to hit a moving target………………………….Serpentine……………………………………………..I don’t want to infringe …
AG TIME
The soy quiet but lower. The tariffs are slated to hit more Chinese goods. The African swine fever continues to quietly spread. The market, I believe, will need to deal with the latter for some time. It is there to stay until eradicated. The setup in China makes the spread easy. I remain bearish soy. However, the market has fallen …
AG TIME more to come?
The soy was under some pressure led by meal. Are we on the shift I have been speaking of for some time. Remains to be seen. However there are many things to consider. the world as we all know is awash in beans. Not because of trump. Because we have doubled carryovers in three years in spite of record demand. …
AG TIME enough of everything
The USDA report confirmed a record bean crop. The question now will be the demand side of the equation. Especially as it relates to China. To recap the bean carry is estimated at 845 mil. The potential exists for further production increases with a good finish and easy harvest. Lets consider some long term factors. A agreement betweethe US and …