AG TIME – Patience

John Walsh General Commentary, Grains 1 Comment

An up day today. A rally here of any proportion should be viewed as a real opportunity to make sales. The USDA releases a report Friday. This is somewhat important in my opinion. It should show the beans are plentiful. The corn I’m not so sure. It could be interesting. Some thoughts for today. The Brazilian is planting at a record pace. They are eager to capture the historic spread between their price and the US. Buy as many US beans as possible. Either sell them to China or crush them and make a small fortune. Or perhaps a large fortune. It is all relative.  The Chinese are cutting the amount of meal in the feed ration. This is significant given the shear number of animals. The numbers will start to show declines, by the way. It is a question of how fast that will be important. I am not bullish meal. It is my belief this is a fantasy. We have the largest amount of beans ever. The demand is in retreat, not expanding. All this will equate to more meal. In closing, always quantify the risk.

The corn was nominally lower. The wheat can’t really get up and do much. I believe corn will show strength here. The numbers are supportive. Friday could either be a killjoy, or the catalyst that the market needed.

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Comments 1

  1. Thanks for your comments John.
    The talk from China about reducing meal in feed doesn’t seem too realistic IMHO. If it was that simple, what are they waiting for? They say they can use “alternative” proteins. I’d like to see them buy these “alternative” proteins in the bulk they need without driving prices through the ceiling. If they just reduce meal they’ll be needing more corn drawing down their dwindling supplies at a faster rate with new ethanol plants coming on line soon. Less meal means longer feeding time to reach the same weight so more corn. Soon they’ll be buying U.S. corn 🙂 Beans are plentiful but they’re good talkers 🙂

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