The soy was lower yesterday. There are a few reasons. The harvest progress is rolling along. The US China spat is of concern. It will be a daily speculation. If the spat is settled beans can rally. In my opinion it would be a short vertical rally that would offer hedging opportunities. The markets are pointing to longer term bear …
Black Swans and Uncertainties
One of the important factors facing all markets, in my opinion, is monetary policy domestically and internationally! We’ve experienced a decade of “helicopter money” when it felt that all breaks in all markets, sans interest rates, were opportunities to own………….Hedge funds thrived as Middle America dived! ………………Now it appears, according to the most recent Federal Reserve Committee minutes, that our …
AG TIME – Two Divergent Paths
The Soy was down a bit today. This rally of late seems to be based on optimism that the US China relations will cool and demand will be restored. Perhaps. It is my belief the relationship will be restored to the Liking of Trump. However, I also believe we are witnessing some demand changes in China. The stagnation that is …
What’s Next?
It might appear that we are approaching a holiday atmosphere in the grain and bean markets…………………………We are wrapping up harvest in the northern hemisphere and starting to escalate harvest in the southern hemisphere with wheat and planting and pollination with corn and beans…………………………………..Mother Nature appears to be becoming more helpful with the final 20% of corn and bean harvesting …
Back to Fundamentals
In the micro-economic world domestic corn and wheat stocks are tight while bean stocks are plentiful. In the macroeconomic world as money supply tightens there’s less urgency to chase any rally in anything as it appears that we are still deflating from the easy money years of 2008 to 2016 when every trader bought dips and made money in everything …
AG TIME – Time to Settle in
The USDA report is in the books. There really were not any surprises from my thought regarding the markets. To recap. The US carry is growing. The USDA only reduced Chinese imports 4 mmt. The 18/19 marketing year the carry is projected to swell to 955 million bushels. This is off the charts. 500-600 is off the charts. At this …
China Census Curve Ball!!!!!!!!!!!
New Census Chinese census figures jostled the world supply/demand figures……………live and learn! Our next USDA report is on December 11 but, it is only Supply/Demand and some traders consider the December report to be the least important number of the year……………..The big one will be in January when the USDA throws the kitchen sink at us …
AG TIME – Report Looms
The USDA will release the November report tomorrow. There are many expecting a reduction in bean yield. I am not so sure about that. The main reason, the conditions remained high towards the tail end of production. There seems to be areas that improved late. Again, I say I’m not so sure. The bean market could use some positive news. …
After the Reports
No one knows what the USDA will present to us at 11:00 tomorrow…………………………………………We’ve been surprised with the last two reports and it is always good to approach these numbers with caution……………………………………………………………………… World wheat stocks and feed grain stocks have been interpreted as potentially bullish in the last few reports yet, we haven’t rallied given …
March Wheat Option Strategy
MARCH WHEAT It in my opinion it appears MARCH Wheat can potentially rally back to 560 a bushel. Technical support and a breakout, aided by bullish crop reports indicating too much rain after a dry period and an under size crop with a substantial draw on supply . Exports are also helping as Asia and the Middle East are in …