The USDA will release the November report tomorrow. There are many expecting a reduction in bean yield. I am not so sure about that. The main reason, the conditions remained high towards the tail end of production. There seems to be areas that improved late. Again, I say I’m not so sure. The bean market could use some positive news. A reduction could give a bounce. I remain bearish on rallies and look at rallies as selling opportunities. The one thing that could spark a bean rally is the resumption of US China trade. With a promise to buy more. It is my belief we are heading into a global stagnation, led by China. While I do believe the US and China will come to terms, I also believe the long run will be marked by a slowdown in Chinese demand, looming large on the bear side in the medium term.
The corn, more than any other market, may have a friendly reaction to the numbers tomorrow. It is my belief that the weather in the corn has done some damage. In addition, it is my observation that the corn yields are off in some key areas. This all could add up to an opportunity to be long. The story has been there for awhile. It is my thought that a catalyst is needed. Perhaps tomorrow we will have it.
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” THE FOOL DOTH THINK THAT HE IS WISE, BUT THE WISE MAN KNOWS HIMSELF TO BE A FOOL ” WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE