Commentary: Thoughts regarding the relationships in the AG sector. The Chinese have begun some purchases today. The exact quantities are not known at this time. However, the market fall put beans and corn in a relative position globally. This allowed the Chinese to buy at a par value. Looking out towards planting, it occurs to me that perhaps the acreage …
Grain Spreads: Corn Realities…
Spot Corn futures settled at their best level in weeks and looks poised for a potential run to 4.05 basis March futures and maybe beyond. Weather and its impact on future yields in South America will be one of the major determinants for price. The demand side of the ledger will depend on sales for future shipment to increase in …
Feeling Cautiously Bullish on 2020 Beans?
With a cautious but bullish sentiment for next year’s soybean crop, irrespective of fees, a “zero-cost,” hedging strategy is achievable which allows for 25 cents of upside profit potential from the current futures price , with protection on the downside just 15 cents lower. This strategy is possible due to the implied volatility skew to the upside common in grain …
Using Options and Technical Analysis in a Soybean Countertrend Strategy
After a rally in Soybeans uncharacteristic for this time of the year, the Nov 19 soybean futures currently trading at 930, could be poised to make a potential near-term move to test the key 961-963 resistance area. Should this happen, an interesting counter trend speculative or hedging strategy, could consist of the sale of the Nov. 2020, 1100 – 1200 …
Position Squaring
The 6 to 10 day is warmer and wetter than normal for the Heartland and this is good for maturity of the corn and bean crops and moisture is not impeding harvest, yet! We’re still a couple of weeks away from the fly free date and soft red wheat seed sales are reported to be a little higher in the …
Regroup
The NWS says warmer and wetter than normal in the Heartland in its last 6 to 10 day forecast. A very positive outlook for crop development as we may gain a little more time for this growing season. And moisture is welcome at this time! A month from now we’ll have a better handle on yields as Mother Nature is …
Down the Rabbit Hole
Soft red wheat appears to be the new golden child in grains. We’ve got Chicago 76 cents over Kansa City in the December contracts, 55 cents over in the July 2020 contract and 30 cents over in the July 2021 contract. Historically, this is unusual and we have to ask the question of whether lower protein wheat which traditionally has …
Getting Lucky?
The most recent 6 to 10 day forecast calls for generally warmer and wetter for the Heartland. Hopefully, we get an extended growing season and allow for corn and beans to mature. Get the bushels first and then get the demand! Field reports are still promising for corn in the South and Mid South and hopefully Dorian stays East and …
Hot Potato
The recent 6 to 10 day forecast for the Heartland is slightly cooler and wetter than normal. Pretty luke warm! September deliveries might weigh on prices as there’s enough of everything everywhere for the next few months. Mother Nature will determine what happens with corn and bean spreads while Chicago wheat remains the special case! After first notice day we’lllook …
Agreement Soon?
The recent 6 to 10 day forecast is calling for cooler and drier than normal in the Heartland. Could be a little supportive for corn and beans as we need more time to mature the crop this year. Deliveries are approaching and cash values suggest lots of corn and beans on the street while soft red wheat is the new …