Down the Rabbit Hole

Steve Bruce General Commentary, Grains Leave a Comment

Soft red wheat appears to be the new golden child in grains. We’ve got Chicago 76 cents over Kansa City in the December contracts, 55 cents over in the July 2020 contract and 30 cents over in the July 2021 contract. Historically, this is unusual and we have to ask the question of whether lower protein wheat which traditionally has a greater yield than the higher proteins has other qualities which makes it more expensive. Or, do we see the fringe areas for example, Matoon, Illinois and which is traditionally corn and beans add some soft red acres this Fall and double crop it with beans next Summer and take advantage of the premium to soft red?? Also, there’s no reason for anyone other than a miller to hold onto soft red as spreads have no carry. We might see another round of movement once the east gets comfortable with corn yields. Regardless, there are spreading opportunities!

The 6 to 10 day forecast is warmer and wetter than normal for the Heartland and this might be considered to be negative to prices and positive for crop development. There’s no urgency to chase corn or beans!

Crop report on the 12th. We always preach the Gospel of going into major crop reports as even and open minded as possible. We’re learning as we go as per how the USDA reflects prevent planting acreage and we might see another surprise on this report.

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Steve Bruce

               
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