Commentary: The USDA released soy estimates today. The old crop stocks were at 580 million bu. Not overly friendly. At present however the US has moved into the prime supplier to the world given the lack of ARG exports, and the Brazilian having exported a lot of late. The currency is also a consideration. These facts can negate the bearish old …
Market Commentary
Commentary: These comments are offered pre report. Tomorrow the USDA will release the supply and demand estimates. There are a few considerations. The Chinese are purchasing beans at present. The US has moved into a position where beans are now a bit cheaper than the competition. This could hold true for a bit depending on currency valuations. The estimates for …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn could have a short term low in place. The Chinese are looking, strong sorghum sales are both helping. The worst case may be over for Ethanol. However, the rebound could be slow. The corn will also watch planting which is fine to date. It does seem probable that China will want to honor phase one commitments. The …
Soy Commentary
Commentary: The soy rebounded today. The Chinese purchased 300 t mt of US beans. The thoughts are we should see more purchases to fill the late summer time slot. This is needed and gave the market a shot in the arm. There are many questions that remain given the overwhelming scenario we have witnessed. The planting progress is on par …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: It is my thought that corn is at a cross road. The fundamentals are bearish without a change. The Chinese are expected to buy to replenish stocks. This reality is needed sooner rather than later. The US planting is moving at a solid pace. This offers little support. The Ethanol industry is on the brink as well given the …
Soy Commentary
Commentary: The beans and meal were both under pressure. The reality of the market is an ample global supply of beans. The domestic carry is ample. The question is will bean acres remain constant. The planting pace is quick thus far. This looks true for both beans and corn. The Chinese are due in for US beans. The Brazilian dominated …
Grain Spreads
Commentary: The demand destruction across various sectors is unfortunately very real as the economy shuts down. Retail Sales which account for over 70 percent of GDP has been sidelined or idled except for some trips to the grocery store by consumers. The destruction in energy and those effects have spilled into most sectors, one commodity that we follow is corn, …
Soy Commentary
Commentary: Some general thoughts given the surreal environment we are navigating. The fundamentals of each market will dictate the price discovery. However it may be of value to consider how quickly the perceived fundamentals can change. Especially given the fact that approx 3 Trillion dollars have been and is in the process of being moved into the economy in one form …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn rebounded nicely today. The corn has shown a strong correlation to the crude. There still remains some concerns given the ethanol slowdown. In addition the lack of use given the global shut down. However, if the crude shows some strength, then the corn may well have set a double bottom in. This could allow for a stabilization …
Soy Commentary
Commentary: The beans were up today following some strength in outside markets. In addition the Chinese made a purchase of 200t tn. This proved to get a bit of excitement going that the Chinese would continue to follow through on the trade agreement. It seems logical that given the covid they have much more reason to follow through on any agreements …