Category Archive

Commentary: The markets were fairly quiet today. The Meal oil had a correction. At present the oilshare stands at 35%. I am watching this closely. The veg oil market can be a bit more inelastic. The meaning here is that the global stocks remain supportive at present. The oil usage should stay strong through the year. The demand for soy …

Commentary: The soy rallied back today. I don’t have a long commentary here today. The fundamentals are what they are. The question is are they baked in the cake at these levels. It is a thought for consideration. The market activity today is essentially an inside day. Tomorrow being Friday, a Friday before a holiday weekend. It will be important …

Commentary: The soy closed sharply lower today. Let’s review briefly yesterday’s numbers. The domestic numbers were much as anticipated. The carry drops to 120 mil bu, due to the crush and exports being raised. It is true the shipments relative to sales, thus far, are excellent. The crush as well, has been very strong due to reasonable margins for quite …

Commentary: Let us take a look at the other side of the coin. First, I would like to start by saying that the bean carry is very tight. This is what has fueled the recent historic run up in prices. I would like to remind that the market in beans is up over $25,000 per contract in the last twelve …

Commentary: SOY The USDA report confirmed a further tightening of soy stocks. The projected carry now at 140 mil bu. This is significant. The question going forward is the Arg crop. The Brazilian crop at present, according to the USDA, will remain at 133 mmt.  In fairness the weather in Brazil has been relatively speaking decent overall. The Arg weather has …

Commentary: The markets have really put on a show over the last few months. The soy has been the leader in the AG’s. The carry remains very tight. The weather in south america remains an issue. The largest concern remains Argentina. The general thoughts are that the USDA will lower the soy carry yet again next week. The question regarding …

Commentary: SOY The markets pulled back a bit today. The thought is that the ARG strike will come to an end. The offers to end the strike are fairly reasonable given the current rate structures. This is just a guess on my part. I believe the strike will come to an end. The ramifications are unclear. However, my thought is …

Commentary: SOY The Argentinian strike continues. Approximately two weeks in at present. This is having an impact both real and perceived. The products both meal and oil continue to perform. The meal more related to the strike in my opinion. The strength here may continue until the strike is resolved. I have no insights or predictions related to this or …

Commentary: The soy continues its rise. The exports have been very strong and are running well ahead of the estimates. In addition the crush will continue to run at a record month to month given the margins. This will drive the pace. The thought is that the Argentinian strike will continue to drive the need for protein from the US. …

Commentary: The soy worked higher today with beans and bean oil both at contract highs. The Argentinian strike has worried the market regarding product availability. The typical strike there does not last long. I say typical, this is obviously an atypical year, so who can predict. The reality of the market, in my opinion, is that the beans are supported …