Soy Market Commentary

John WalshGeneral Commentary, Grains


The soy had a very significant move up today. The move was similar to yesterday. The meal led early. The oil took over and meal failed. The fundamental picture has been supportive. There are some considerations here to take not of. First the beans and meal are not the cheapest in the world at present. This does not mean that the market cant go higher . However, there are considerations at present.  The bean oil with this recent surge has moved to a normal historic relationship relative to palm. This could offer some resistance at present. In addition, the bean oil spreads are inverted in a rather steep way. This also may have dialed in some of the bullish factors. Tomorrow will be interesting in my opinion. The short run may run into some resistance. The long run in my opinion may still present some opportunity for bean oil, especially on a relative basis. The Brazilian crop now will start to move through harvest. The question is how much and how soon will exports start to cut into the US export program.  Lets see what happens over night.

John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

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