SOYBEANS – Soybean planting is at 76% as of 5/25, up 10% over last week. Planting is well ahead of schedule with the 10-year average for this time of year being 63%. Of the 18 major states, just KY (-5%), MS (-7%), and OH (-10%) were all lagging their respective 5-year averages. The national crop was 50% emerged, ahead of …
Soybean Oil Leading the Grains YTD, as June Approaches
SOYBEANS – The weather forecast for the upcoming week shows rains for the South, with the Plains and Midwest drier along with cooler temperatures. Soybean oil has been the highest performing commodity in the grains and the second-highest performing commodity overall year-to-date behind gold. Soybean oil is up +22% year-to-date, gold at 27%. Managed money reduced their position on the …
Can July Corn Break 467 and Continue Higher?
SOYBEANS – Soybeans closed lower ahead of the holiday weekend. Open interest was up yesterday along with the higher close showing that more new positions were opened which is bullish. Bean meal closed higher yesterday with open interest falling indicating short covering. Yesterday’s close was a monthly high. Meal exports made a 15-week high on yesterday’s report with funds short …
Profit-Taking in Chicago Wheat Ahead of the Long Weekend
SOYBEANS – Soybeans moved higher again today. Yesterday’s trading showed soybean open interest decline by nearly 5000 contracts, which signals short covering rather than new buying. Soybean CVOL, an implied volatility metric derived from option pricing, is right around last year’s weekly average. Last year soybean CVOL saw large increases in volatility heading into June. Soybean CVOL usually peaks during …
Chicago Wheat Closes Above the 50-day MA
SOYBEANS – Planting pace is at a rapid 66% compared to 48% a week ago and 50% a year ago. The average planting pace for this time of year is 53%. The states furthest behind in planting, the southeastern and eastern corn belts, are expected to see some rain. Rain is causing flooding in South America which large production losses …
Chicago Wheat Leading the Grains Higher
SOYBEANS – US and China trade negotiations are still ongoing. April arrivals of US soybeans into China are up 35% year-over-year. Brazil’s soybean exports into China are down 43% on the year. Last year the number of US shipments into China were unusually small, while Brazil exports into China were unusually large. Soybeans are estimated to be 66% planted compared …
Corn Forecast 2025
Will demand push corn prices higher in 2025? At near $4.40, the 2025 price of corn futures appears to be near or below the cost of production. The National Corn Growers Association, using the USDA cost of production forecast for corn and the 181 bushel per acre yield projection, estimated the average cost of production at $4.80 per bushel for …
Why I Believe Soybeans Are Going Higher
In my opinion, the future looks promising for soybeans, with multiple factors indicating a bullish trend for this important commodity. First, the global demand for soybeans continues to rise, particularly driven by the need for animal feed and plant-based proteins. As countries, especially in Asia, look to expand their meat production, soybeans will remain a key ingredient in animal feed, …
Harvest Pressure
Please join me for a free grain webinar every Thursday at 3pm Central. We discuss supply, demand, weather, and the charts. Sign Up Now Commentary Corn and soybean markets are lower again today as dry weather allows for harvest to rapidly move forward in the U.S. Favorable rains are finally falling on many dry areas in Brazil adding to the …
State of Confusion in Cattle
The cash market has been breaking down the past month as packers have regained control of the price action, in my opinion. The Equity markets have been under pressure as traders worry about economic conditions. Cattle and Feeder cattle are still relatively close to their all-time highs as the rest of the commodity markets for the most part is well …