Soybeans–
Soybean oil was limit up again today off the EPA’s announcement of higher RVOs for bio-mass based biodiesel. The EPA raising the blending rate from 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 to 5.61 billion gallons in 2026 and 5.86 billion gallons in 2027. Soybean oil was limit up on Friday as well.
Temperatures are expected to rise over the next two weeks in the Midwest, hopefully that will bring some solid growing degree days. The cash price was down 25 cents on Friday and up 35 cents today indicating that producers took advantage of the futures rally to sell cash soybeans.
NOPA crush came out this morning at 192.829 mb, the trade estimate was 193.52. Despite the report number being lower than the estimate, it was the highest-ever total for May.
Exports for the week ending June 12 were 215k mt at 90.2% of the USDA’s estimate. The 5-year average is 87.2%. Exports for this week are below the 558k mt figure from last week. Top destinations for soybeans this week were Germany, Japan, Mexico, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
July Soybeans (ZSN25) settled at 1070 (+0.25), high of 1070, low of 1064. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1060 (+5). Cash price is at 1046 (+35)
July Bean Meal (ZMN25) settled at 283.7 (-8.2) high of 291.9, low of 283.6
July Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 55.11 (+4.50) high of 55.11, low of 52.18
The July Meal to Oil ratio (50.74% Meal – 49.26% Oil)
ZSN25 Moving Averages – (1058) 5-day, (1053) 20-day, (1049) 50-day, (1050) 100-day, (1047) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1040) 5-day, (1037) 20-day, (1030) 50-day, (1032) 100-day, (1033) 200-day
ZMN25 Moving Averages – (295.7) 5-day, (298.1) 20-day, (299.2) 50-day, (305.8) 100-day, (312.4) 200-day
ZLN25 Moving Averages – (49.83) 5-day, (48.58) 20-day, (48.54) 50-day, (46.86) 100-day, (45.10) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 10th showed soybeans Managed Money traders bought 17,038 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 25,639 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -17,367 contracts bringing their net short position to -160,854 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 43,994 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 10th showed meal Managed Money traders bought 9,909 contracts, moving to a net short position of -86,808 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -9,212 contracts bringing their net short position to -62,105. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -50,495 contracts.
For bean oil, the Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 10th showed Managed Money traders were net long 24,768 contracts after selling -7,222 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 40,033 contracts.
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CORN –
July Corn (ZCN25) settled at 434 (-9), high of 446, low of 431. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 435 (-8). Cash price is 466 (+6)
The corn market was affected by weakness in crude oil. Crude oil made a big move higher following the increasing Middle East tensions but started reversing after negotiation headlines dropped. Brazil’s corn harvest is approximately 6% complete but it’s moving at slower pace than last year. Managed money added to their short position, bringing their total net short to -164k contracts.
Exports for the week ending June 12 were 1.67 mmt at 78.8% of the USDA’s estimate. The 5-year average is 72.0%. Exports are down from last week’s exports at 1.72 mmt. Top destinations for corn this week were Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and Vietnam.
ZCN25 Moving Averages – (438) 5-day, (445) 20-day, (460) 50-day, (473) 100-day, (462) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (439) 5-day, (443) 20-day, (447) 50-day, (453) 100-day, (448) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 10th showed that corn Managed Money sold -9,977 contracts bringing their net position to -164,020 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 24,108 contracts bringing their net position to -78,344. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -171,062 contracts.
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WHEAT –
July Chicago Wheat (ZWN25) settled at 536 (-7), with a high of 546, low of 531. September Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 552 (-7). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 549 (+17). July KC Wheat (KEN25) settled at 536 (-4). July Spring Wheat (MWN25) settled at 622 (-11)
Wheat backed off today after the rally on Friday. If crude oil makes another move higher wheat can go with it. On Monday, Wheat and crude oil traded lower together. HRW weather conditions are forecasted to improve, with new hot and dry weather added to the forecast. HRW areas in the plains saw more excessive rains over the weekend. The COT report from Friday, showed some short covering in wheat but managed money still holds a large -94,011 contract short position.
Wheat, the “political grain,” moved higher today off of rising tensions in the Middle East. Israel’s attack on Iran looks to be a major escalation, and it could be the start of a new war campaign. HRW harvest has been slow due to wet conditions, but pace is expected to pick up as the Plains eventually start to dry out,
Yesterday’s WASDE report showed a decrease in new crop ending stocks from 923 mb last month to 898 mb, still 7% above last year. New crop exports were raised 25 mb. The average trade estimate was 924 mb. The USDA’s estimate in May was 923 mb. Old crop ending stocks were unchanged. World wheat production was projected at 1.921 bb, up 115k bushels over the May report. Despite the friendly domestic new crop ending stocks, what really drove the market lower today was the increased world production numbers.
Exports for the week ending June 12 were 388k. The current marketing year is at 2.6% of the USDA estimate right inline with the 5-year average at 2.6%. Exports are up from last weeks total 324k mt. Top wheat destinations for this week were Nigeria, the Philippines, Thailand, and Mexico.
ZWN25 Moving Averages – (535) 5-day, (538) 20-day, (540) 50-day, (560) 100-day, (576) 200-day
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (550) 5-day, (553) 20-day, (554) 50-day, (575) 100-day, (589) 200-day
KEN25 Moving Averages – (530) 5-day, (534) 20-day, (542) 50-day, (570) 100-day, (581) 200-day
MWN25 Moving Averages – (621) 5-day, (614) 20-day, (608) 50-day, (616) 100-day, (626) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 10th showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -94,011 contracts, having decreased their short position by 6,561 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -2,184 contracts to bring their net position to 34,095 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -95,234 contracts.
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Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
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hschmit@walshtrading.com
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