April Feeder Cattle and April Live cattle consolidated within yesterday’s trading ranges. If April Feeder Cattle breaks down below 143.75, a test of support is possible at 142.425. Support then comes in at 140.775. If 143.75 hold, more consolidation is possible. If April Live Cattle breaks down below 125.80, a test of support at 124.30 is possible. The rising 100 …
Grain Spreads: Simplicity
I’m going to keep it short and to the point today. A couple very short term bets and long term view on grains with some inexpensive trades that to me make some sense. Corn : Reasons for rally:potential Bullish Seasonal (April-June). 200 K shorts in market according to COT data and recent open interest. Is China buying on trade deal? …
Weather Focus Time
There’s still a bad attitude, nervousness, anxiety over the state of world trade. Brexit and how things fall out….The Chinese trade deal on and/or off……….Central banks reacting to what happens to other EU nations depending on the outcome of the Brexit sabotage……….But, in the grain markets it comes down to weather and it appears that the Heartland …
Livestock Report
April Live Cattle took one on the chin today and nearly went down for the count, missing out on a down limit move by .325. It settled at 126.65, just above support 126.625. Once support was breached at 128.10, long positions went into take profits mode and the selloff gained steam pushing price just past the critical support level and …
AG TIME
The talk today was that there is progress in the China / US saga. The progress is essential. But, what will the real scenario be. I am confident there will be positives, however, not all will be bullish once the deal is over. The next rally if it transpires is a rally to sell in beans. The current fundamentals are …
A Long Way to Go
Winter wheat is starting to break dormancy. There is a lot of growing season ahead of us before we start harvesting in mid Texas in mid May and finish up in Michigan in mid July. How we break dormancy, frosts in early May, too wet or too dry at different times of development will have a drastic impact on …
Bean Vol swap Follow up
3/7/19 Going into the report tomorrow volatility is Jacked. Not just the report but several factors. 1st the report 2nd unemployment 3rd and most influential in my opinion is the rumor that China will take tariffs off over the weekend. All factors lead to HIGH volatility. If the RUMOR does materialize over the weekend Monday could see big moves. Options …
Livestock Report
April Lean Hogs continued to rally on Monday, March 11, 2019. It broke out above the 200 DMA (61.31) and nearby resistance at 61.80 nearly going up limit for the second trading session in a row. It made its high at 63.50, just above the 63.325 resistance level before falling back and settling below resistance at 62.85. Continued excitement could …
Livestock Report
April Lean Hogs rallied today going up limit at the end of the trading session. It passed the 100 DMA at 60.565 reaching the high at 60.725. It settled at 60.55. Follow through to the upside could see resistance tested at the 200 DMA at 61.375 and then 61.80. If momentum can push [rice above 61.80, a test of the …
Grain Spreads: Shorts Press Amid WASDE…Looking for Bottoms
Major short in the grain market: Positioning into this week below. Funds continue to sell rallies in the grain complex amid weak demand and excess supply. That can change moving forward with weather being the key reason as we slowly move into Spring planting in the weeks to come. The catch up CFTC Commitment of Traders report (CoT) showed that …