2/16/24
The Cattle Markets had big gains today and the Soybeans bounced higher too. I hope you sold it on the close. April’24 Live Cattle were 1.950 higher today and settled at 187.550, just below today’s high of 188.125, which is also the 1-month high. The 52-week high is 199.825, and I am showing that for informational purposes only. Today’s low was 185.425 and the 1-month low is 174.350. Since 2/16 April’24 Live Cattle are 12.200 higher or almost 7%. The Feeders had a big day today. March’24 Feeder Cattle were 3.925 higher today and settled at 251.025. Today’s high was 251.925, which is also the 1-month high. Today’s low was 247.125 and the 1-month low is 227.750. Since 2/16 March’24 Feeder Cattle are 22.200 higher or almost 10%. The Hogs posted a gain today as well. April’24 Lean Hogs were 0.225 higher today and settled at 85.225, just under today’s high of 85.650, and just below the 1-month high of 85.925. Today’s low was 84.525 and the 1-month low is 76.725. Since 2/16 April’24 Lean Hogs are 7.650 higher or almost 10%. The Grain Markets were mixed today with only the Soybeans bouncing higher. May’24 Soybeans were 10 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 1176 ¼, just below today’s high of 1177 ½. the 1-month high is 1252 ¾. Today’s low was 1165 ½ and the 1-month low is 1164 ¼. The 52-week low is 1150 ¾. The 52-week low in March’24 Beans is currently 1145 ¼, 32 cents from today’s settlement price of 1177 ¼. Since 2/16 May’24 Soybeans are 62 ¼ cents lower or just over 5%. The Corn Market fell fractionally today. May’24 Corn was ¼ cent lower today and settled at 429 ½. today’s high was 433 and the 1-month high is 463. Today’s low of 427 ¾ is also the 1-month and 52-week low. Since 2/16 May’24 Corn is 25 ¾ cents lower or about 5 ½%. The Wheat Market continued to slide lower today. May’24 Wheat was 8 ¼ cents lower today and settled at 559. Today’s high was 568 ¾ and the 1-month high is 626 ½. Today’s low of 555 is also the 1-month and 52-week low. Since 2/16 May’24 Wheat is 37 cents lower or over 6%. The Cattle markets continued to climb today, but I would not want to be long over the three-day weekend. The Cattle market might look strong, but it could be a house of cards. I truly hope everyone is prepared for the 180 if it happens. Take a look at the Option Premium many months out… The Grain Market is imploding and a I don’t believe a 10-cent bounce in the Beans will do anything to stop that. I have stated multiple times why I feel the Soybean market is overpriced, and I see nothing to change my opinion. I want everyone to be protected from their downside exposure. If you are not sure how to do that, ask someone, anyone. I am happy to help, but if not me, get help from someone. I will be in Houston for the Commodity Classic on the 28th. I hope to see you there. Livestock and Grain Option charts and tables below. Have a great three-day weekend.
LIVE CATTLE CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| APR’24 187.550 | 190C | 4.675 | $1,870 |
| 195C | 0.825 | $330 | |
| 200C | 0.325 | $130 | |
| ATM 188C 3.150 | ATM STRADDLE 6.750 | EXPIRES 4/5/24 | |
| JUN’24 182.825 | 190C | 2.100 | $840 |
| 195C | 1.050 | $420 | |
| 200C | 0.525 | $210 | |
| ATM 183C 4.850 | ATM STRADDLE 9.875 | EXPIRES 6/7/24 | |
| AUG’24 181.575 | 190C | 2.500 | $1,000 |
| 195C | 1.400 | $560 | |
| 200C | 0.775 | $310 | |
| ATM 182C 5.650 | ATM STRADDLE 11.725 | EXPIRES 8/2/24 |
LIVE CATTLE PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| APR’24 187.550 | 180P | 1.000 | $400 |
| 175P | 0.425 | $170 | |
| 170P | 0.200 | $80 | |
| ATM 188P 3.600 | ATM STRADDLE 6.750 | EXPIRES 4/5/24 | |
| JUN’24 182.825 | 170P | 1.175 | $470 |
| 165P | 0.650 | $260 | |
| 160P | 0.375 | $150 | |
| ATM 183P 5.025 | ATM STRADDLE 9.875 | EXPIRES 6/7/24 | |
| AUG’24 181.575 | 170P | 2.050 | $820 |
| 160P | 0.725 | $290 | |
| 150P | 0.275 | $110 | |
| ATM 182P 6.075 | ATM STRADDLE 11.725 | EXPIRES 8/2/24 |
OCTOBER’24 LIVE CATTLE
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 184.575 | 10% BULL MOVE | 203.032 | 202C | 1.400 |
| 184.575 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 166.117 | 168P | 1.850 |
| 184.575 | 20% BULL MOVE | 221.490 | 220C | 0.250 |
| 184.575 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 147.660 | 148P | 0.325 |
| 184.575 | 30% BULL MOVE | 239.947 | 238C | 0.075 |
| 184.575 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 129.202 | 130P | 0.075 |
FEEDER CATTLE CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 251.025 | 255C | 2.400 | $1,200 |
| 260C | 1.175 | $587.50 | |
| 265C | 0.600 | $300 | |
| ATM 251C 4.125 | ATM STRADDLE 8.225 | EXPIRES 3/28/24 | |
| APR’24 253.550 | 260C | 3.500 | $1,750 |
| 265C | 2.150 | $1,075 | |
| 270C | 1.300 | $650 | |
| ATM 254C 5.975 | ATM STRADDLE 12.400 | EXPIRES 4/25/24 | |
| MAY’24 255.625 | 260C | 6.175 | $3,087.50 |
| 270C | 3.000 | $1,500 | |
| 280C | 1.400 | $700 | |
| ATM 256C 8.000 | ATM STRADDLE 16.375 | EXPIRES 5/23/24 |
FEEDER CATTLE PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 251.025 | 245P | 1.850 | $925 |
| 240P | 0.875 | $437.50 | |
| 230P | 0.200 | $100 | |
| ATM 251P 4.100 | ATM STRADDLE 8.225 | EXPIRES 3/28/24 | |
| APR’24 253.550 | 240P | 1.850 | $925 |
| 235P | 1.125 | $562.50 | |
| 230P | 0.675 | $337.50 | |
| ATM 254P 6.425 | ATM STRADDLE 12.400 | EXPIRES 4/25/24 | |
| MAY’24 255.625 | 245P | 4.125 | $2,062.50 |
| 235P | 2.000 | $1,000 | |
| 225P | 0.900 | $450 | |
| ATM 256P 8.775 | ATM STRADDLE 16.375 | EXPIRES 5/23/24 |
AUGUST’24 FEEDER CATTLE
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 266.975 | 10% BULL MOVE | 293.672 | 292C | 3.850 |
| 266.975 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 240.227 | 242P | 3.875 |
| 266.975 | 20% BULL MOVE | 320.370 | 320C | 0.975 |
| 266.975 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 213.580 | 214P | 0.800 |
| 266.975 | 30% BULL MOVE | 347.067 | 346C | 0.375 |
| 266.975 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 186.882 | 188P | 0.125 |
LEAN HOG CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| APR’24 85.225 | 90C | 0.700 | $280 |
| 95C | 0.175 | $70 | |
| 100C | 0.075 | $30 | |
| ATM 85C 2.625 | ATM STRADDLE 5.025 | EXPIRES 4/12/24 | |
| JUN’24 97.750 | 106C | 1.325 | $530 |
| 116C | 0.250 | $100 | |
| 126C | 0.050 | $20 | |
| ATM 98C 4.300 | ATM STRADDLE 8.850 | EXPIRES 6/14/24 | |
| JUL’24 98.625 | 106C | 1.975 | $790 |
| 110C | 1.100 | $440 | |
| 116C | 0.475 | $190 | |
| ATM 98C 5.375 | ATM STRADDLE 10.125 | EXPIRES 7/15/24 |
LEAN HOG PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| APR’24 85.225 | 75P | 0.350 | $140 |
| 70P | 0.175 | $70 | |
| 65P | 0.075 | $30 | |
| ATM 85P 2.400 | ATM STRADDLE 5.025 | EXPIRES 4/12/24 | |
| JUN’24 97.750 | 86P | 1.075 | $430 |
| 80P | 0.525 | $210 | |
| 76P | 0.325 | $130 | |
| ATM 98P 4.550 | ATM STRADDLE 8.850 | EXPIRES 6/14/24 | |
| JUL’24 98.625 | 86P | 1.300 | $520 |
| 80P | 0.650 | $260 | |
| 76P | 0.400 | $160 | |
| ATM 96P 4.750 | ATM STRADDLE 10.125 | EXPIRES 7/15/24 |
AUGUST’24 LEAN HOGS
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 98.075 | 10% BULL MOVE | 107.882 | 106C | 2.175 |
| 98.075 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 88.267 | 90P | 2.525 |
| 98.075 | 20% BULL MOVE | 117.690 | 116C | 0.575 |
| 98.075 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 78.460 | 80P | 0.850 |
| 98.075 | 30% BULL MOVE | 127.497 | 126C | 0.200 |
| 98.075 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 68.652 | 70P | 0.275 |
THE ABOVE PRICES REFLECT CURRENT DATE AND SETTLEMENT PRICES AND EXCLUDES THE COST OF COMMISSIONS AND FEES. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS WHEN TRADING FUTURES OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND EACH INVESTOR OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER IT IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PURCHASE OF LONG OPTIONS CAN RESULT IN THE LOSS OF THE ENTIRE PURCHASE PRICE PLUS COSTS.
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Bill Allen
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