2/23/24
The Soybean Market was crushed today, and the Cattle Markets continued to post gains. April’24 Live Cattle were 1.350 higher today and settled at 187.900, just below today’s high of 188.300. The 1-month high is 189.200. Today’s low was 185.850 and the 1-month low is 177.425. Since 1/23 April’24 Live Cattle are 10.075 higher or more than 5 ½%. The feeders had a big move higher. March’24 Feeder Cattle were 2.525 higher today and settled at 254.575, just below today’s high and the 1-month high of 254.750. today’s low was 251.050 and the 1-month low is 231.975. Since 1/23 March’24 Feeder Cattle are 20.925 higher or almost 9%. The Hogs were unchanged today. April’24 Lean Hogs settled unchanged for the day at 87.200. Today’s high was 88.325 and the 1-month high is 88.900. Today’s low was 87.050 and the 1-month low is 79.500. Since 1/23 April’24 Lean Hogs are 6.875 higher or about 8 ½%. The Soybean Market has imploded as I expected and March’24 Soybeans have a new 52-week low. May’24 Soybeans were 10 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 1141 ¾. Today’s high was 1158 ½ and the 1-month high is 1252 ¾. Today’s low is also the 1-month low at 1138 ¼. Since 1/23 May’24 Soybeans are $1.05 ¼ lower or almost 8 ½%. The previous 52-week low in March’24 was 1145 ¼… I expect that number to keep changing. The current 52-week low in March’24 Soybeans is 1130 ¼. The Corn also fell today. May’24 Corn fell 5 cents today a settled at 413 ½, just above today’s low and the 1-month low of 411 ¾. Today’s high was 421 ¾ and the 1-month high is 463. Since 1/23 May’24 Corn is 43 ¼ cents lower or almost 9 ½%. The Wheat dropped today as well. May’24 Wheat dropped 9 ¾ cents today and settled at 569, just a penny above today’s low of 568. the 1-month and 52-week low is 553 ½. Today’s high was 587 ½ and the 1-month high is 626 ½. Since 1/23 May’24 Wheat is 37 ¾ cents lower or over 6%. The Soybean Market does not look good. New contract lows were set today, and I don’t see anything to stop the slide lower. The Corn Market once again slid lower following the Beans. March’24 Corn traded as low as 398 ½ today and settled under $4.00 at 399 ¾. If Corn falls another 20-30 cents, I feel like it could be a good price to start buying several months out. The Wheat Market does whatever it wants to, and I don’t have a plan for the Wheat Market yet, but I will. I am still Bearish the Cattle Market. I will be in Houston for the Commodity Classic on the 28th. I hope to see you there.
Below is a snapshot of the USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report.
Last Friday’s Charts Below
LIVE CATTLE CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| APR’24 187.550 | 190C | 4.675 | $1,870 |
| 195C | 0.825 | $330 | |
| 200C | 0.325 | $130 | |
| ATM 188C 3.150 | ATM STRADDLE 6.750 | EXPIRES 4/5/24 | |
| JUN’24 182.825 | 190C | 2.100 | $840 |
| 195C | 1.050 | $420 | |
| 200C | 0.525 | $210 | |
| ATM 183C 4.850 | ATM STRADDLE 9.875 | EXPIRES 6/7/24 | |
| AUG’24 181.575 | 190C | 2.500 | $1,000 |
| 195C | 1.400 | $560 | |
| 200C | 0.775 | $310 | |
| ATM 182C 5.650 | ATM STRADDLE 11.725 | EXPIRES 8/2/24 |
LIVE CATTLE PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| APR’24 187.550 | 180P | 1.000 | $400 |
| 175P | 0.425 | $170 | |
| 170P | 0.200 | $80 | |
| ATM 188P 3.600 | ATM STRADDLE 6.750 | EXPIRES 4/5/24 | |
| JUN’24 182.825 | 170P | 1.175 | $470 |
| 165P | 0.650 | $260 | |
| 160P | 0.375 | $150 | |
| ATM 183P 5.025 | ATM STRADDLE 9.875 | EXPIRES 6/7/24 | |
| AUG’24 181.575 | 170P | 2.050 | $820 |
| 160P | 0.725 | $290 | |
| 150P | 0.275 | $110 | |
| ATM 182P 6.075 | ATM STRADDLE 11.725 | EXPIRES 8/2/24 |
OCTOBER’24 LIVE CATTLE
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 184.575 | 10% BULL MOVE | 203.032 | 202C | 1.400 |
| 184.575 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 166.117 | 168P | 1.850 |
| 184.575 | 20% BULL MOVE | 221.490 | 220C | 0.250 |
| 184.575 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 147.660 | 148P | 0.325 |
| 184.575 | 30% BULL MOVE | 239.947 | 238C | 0.075 |
| 184.575 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 129.202 | 130P | 0.075 |
FEEDER CATTLE CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 251.025 | 255C | 2.400 | $1,200 |
| 260C | 1.175 | $587.50 | |
| 265C | 0.600 | $300 | |
| ATM 251C 4.125 | ATM STRADDLE 8.225 | EXPIRES 3/28/24 | |
| APR’24 253.550 | 260C | 3.500 | $1,750 |
| 265C | 2.150 | $1,075 | |
| 270C | 1.300 | $650 | |
| ATM 254C 5.975 | ATM STRADDLE 12.400 | EXPIRES 4/25/24 | |
| MAY’24 255.625 | 260C | 6.175 | $3,087.50 |
| 270C | 3.000 | $1,500 | |
| 280C | 1.400 | $700 | |
| ATM 256C 8.000 | ATM STRADDLE 16.375 | EXPIRES 5/23/24 |
FEEDER CATTLE PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 251.025 | 245P | 1.850 | $925 |
| 240P | 0.875 | $437.50 | |
| 230P | 0.200 | $100 | |
| ATM 251P 4.100 | ATM STRADDLE 8.225 | EXPIRES 3/28/24 | |
| APR’24 253.550 | 240P | 1.850 | $925 |
| 235P | 1.125 | $562.50 | |
| 230P | 0.675 | $337.50 | |
| ATM 254P 6.425 | ATM STRADDLE 12.400 | EXPIRES 4/25/24 | |
| MAY’24 255.625 | 245P | 4.125 | $2,062.50 |
| 235P | 2.000 | $1,000 | |
| 225P | 0.900 | $450 | |
| ATM 256P 8.775 | ATM STRADDLE 16.375 | EXPIRES 5/23/24 |
AUGUST’24 FEEDER CATTLE
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 266.975 | 10% BULL MOVE | 293.672 | 292C | 3.850 |
| 266.975 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 240.227 | 242P | 3.875 |
| 266.975 | 20% BULL MOVE | 320.370 | 320C | 0.975 |
| 266.975 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 213.580 | 214P | 0.800 |
| 266.975 | 30% BULL MOVE | 347.067 | 346C | 0.375 |
| 266.975 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 186.882 | 188P | 0.125 |
LEAN HOG CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| APR’24 85.225 | 90C | 0.700 | $280 |
| 95C | 0.175 | $70 | |
| 100C | 0.075 | $30 | |
| ATM 85C 2.625 | ATM STRADDLE 5.025 | EXPIRES 4/12/24 | |
| JUN’24 97.750 | 106C | 1.325 | $530 |
| 116C | 0.250 | $100 | |
| 126C | 0.050 | $20 | |
| ATM 98C 4.300 | ATM STRADDLE 8.850 | EXPIRES 6/14/24 | |
| JUL’24 98.625 | 106C | 1.975 | $790 |
| 110C | 1.100 | $440 | |
| 116C | 0.475 | $190 | |
| ATM 98C 5.375 | ATM STRADDLE 10.125 | EXPIRES 7/15/24 |
LEAN HOG PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| APR’24 85.225 | 75P | 0.350 | $140 |
| 70P | 0.175 | $70 | |
| 65P | 0.075 | $30 | |
| ATM 85P 2.400 | ATM STRADDLE 5.025 | EXPIRES 4/12/24 | |
| JUN’24 97.750 | 86P | 1.075 | $430 |
| 80P | 0.525 | $210 | |
| 76P | 0.325 | $130 | |
| ATM 98P 4.550 | ATM STRADDLE 8.850 | EXPIRES 6/14/24 | |
| JUL’24 98.625 | 86P | 1.300 | $520 |
| 80P | 0.650 | $260 | |
| 76P | 0.400 | $160 | |
| ATM 96P 4.750 | ATM STRADDLE 10.125 | EXPIRES 7/15/24 |
AUGUST’24 LEAN HOGS
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 98.075 | 10% BULL MOVE | 107.882 | 106C | 2.175 |
| 98.075 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 88.267 | 90P | 2.525 |
| 98.075 | 20% BULL MOVE | 117.690 | 116C | 0.575 |
| 98.075 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 78.460 | 80P | 0.850 |
| 98.075 | 30% BULL MOVE | 127.497 | 126C | 0.200 |
| 98.075 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 68.652 | 70P | 0.275 |
THE ABOVE PRICES REFLECT CURRENT DATE AND SETTLEMENT PRICES AND EXCLUDES THE COST OF COMMISSIONS AND FEES. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS WHEN TRADING FUTURES OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND EACH INVESTOR OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER IT IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PURCHASE OF LONG OPTIONS CAN RESULT IN THE LOSS OF THE ENTIRE PURCHASE PRICE PLUS COSTS.
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Bill Allen
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Direct: 1 312 957 8079
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