AG TIME hope springs eternal

John Walsh Grains Leave a Comment

the outside markets remain the same as I have covered. the dollar continues to gain,especially vs the Euro. this as I have said should continue. This is not a bullish input for the Ags in general. the bonds continue to show macro weakness. a trend I think will continue. My commentary here is void of politics. At least I attempt to follow that path. Nobody needs another political opinion. I will make a observation though. We spent 8 years with the Obama administration. The news told the citizens how well we were doing,when we were flat lining. Not a critical comment on Obama, just a fact based on economic numbers. Now by all numbers related to economic assessment, the US is doing as well as ever. The best ever in some categories. And now the meadia tells us every day how poorly we are doing. The economic run, in my opinion will continue. that means a strong dollar,and declining bonds. I have said the direction of the stock market to me, now, is not a indication of the general economy. The stocks could correct and the general economy keep chugging.

The beans rallied. Why ? The reasons are put forth that we are cheaper than SA, therefore beans should be supported. Rallies to me are still selling opportunities. The acreage for next year is predicted to drop by 8 million acres. It is real early to make that prediction. However, if that is true we could still have a 600-700 million bu carry in beans. That besides this year would be a record. historically beans would still be to high. The aspects of the market I am looking at. 1) nov 19 beans, I like selling any rallies there. 2) meal spreads are back to carrying charges. This trend should continue. 3) It is my belief that the crush is to high and will decline over time. 4) last but not least. I am bearish meal and protein in the long run. Many reasons laid out over the last while.  Remember, I like everyone am wrong. there are no guarantees in life unfortunately. that is why use stops or some form of risk quantifying method.

The feed grains cant do much. Corn cant rally here. There are a couple reasons I suppose. The Ukranian corn, and the Arg corn, both are cheaper at present time. This is a negative above the market. These scenarios can change quickly. However, sometimes the markets cant make the turn. I have favored a long corn short soy stance. I still do. I just am attempting patience to see if we can get a friendly nov usda report to spark a rally. A rally that will set producers up to make some sales. It is possible that the corn is range bound till the report.

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