I am asking more questions than providing answers. Thats not always a great place to be . A observation regarding the soy. The market has lacked fluidity in my opinion. The market moves and retraces much of its direction. This makes it difficult to trade for a long term trend. The fundamentals to me dont match the price. The Brazilian crop is drawn down this is true. The global supply is a record regardless. In addition the USDA report suggested that China will import 88 mmt of soy. There are private estimates as low as 83 mmt. It remains my belief that we are witnessing a long term slowdown in China. If this theory is true it changes demand. Put this in perspective , the early estimates last year were 103 mmt of imports by China. Most people were throwing these numbers around. I did not see that. Now 83 mmt is a 20% draw from that high estimate. Perhaps we settle in here for awhile. My main point. This rally we are seeing. I dont know how long it will last, but I do believe it is a retracement of a down. Use rallies to hedge. The nov 2019 above 970 represents value to me. The macro market is bearish in my opinion. Exercise caution and trade with stops.
The corn was moving with thoughts the US delegation can get something done with China. The hope is corn is on the list. The corn has a friendly window. This is it at present. If we can close above 382-383 basis narch a tech rally may unfold. USE STOPS. I like the corn fundamentals in the short run. The long run is something different,But lets see if this materializes.
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