John Walsh General Commentary

The soy under pressure again. The follow through seems slow but steady. The performer remains soy oil again. The oil share showing steady gains , but still off from the targets I perceive as possible. The catalyst is the palm rally. A stagnation in production, coupled with a large pick up in global demand has drawn stocks down to levels not seen in some time. The price relationship has gained on bean oil , now a 50-60$ discount. The veg oil market should remain firm into the 2020 crop season with the current fundamentals in place. The question now is if the US will solve the China issues in the near term. The weather in the US will allow for the last part of US bean harvest to advance it appears. In addition the vast majority of SA has improved weather conditions. The potential at present is intact for a trend harvest. (There remains time for this to change). The global crush margins will push for a continued high rate. In my opinion the world will at present absorb the oil , but it is my thought given the ASF , the protein markets will be oversupplied. These are all my thoughts. Quantify your risk always.