The soy complex posting another day of modest gains. The bull case is for the support to continue due to the weather uncertainties in south America. The weather does remain a bit problematic in the short term. There remains time for the weather pattern to shift to the positive for beans. It is still to early. Some facts to consider looking forward. The usda will give us numbers on Tuesday. A confirmation regarding the yields one way or the other will be part of the market on Tuesday. This will be important for price discovery going forward. The recent buying and boost to exports has been due to concerns in south America. It is likely that the export pace of the US will decline as the year progresses. In addition acreage adjustments may be forthcoming. It is more than probable the domestic carry can approach over 500 million bushels. In addition there remains approx. 15 mln tons of soy carryover in south America at present. At or near record levels. The amount of meal available from brazil remains at or near record levels. The global stocks for most commodities continue to rise despite record demand. If and or when we see a blip in demand , these markets will be way over valued. Especially in the soy complex. There are many details in the crush and oil share to watch in coming months. It remains my belief there will continue to be relatively large moves in these spread relationships. As always quantify your risk
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