There are many considerations in the market at present. The President threatened the full monty today with all Chinese exports to the US under tariff. This will not transpire in my opinion because I believe China will capitulate. The Chinese wont want this to transpire. At present the Chinese currency is under sincere pressure. This is a defense tactic but also a negative as it confirms the sincere problems. It is my belief the Chinese have some structural problems. The weakening of the currency is meant to aide the slowdown. The soy exports at present are high from the uS. However trailing and overstated. My contention the exports are overstated. This equates to more beans, and more meal. The Chinese meal demand has slowed. This is a trend I believe will continue. A slowdown will force animal contraction. In addition the global oilmeal supplies on the rise. From multiple countries. The meal market in my opinion is the next to drop. meal has been the strength of the complex. I believe this is changing. If so this could be a macro shift.
The Corn was well supported today. The weather has been a key factor. I believe a further reduction in rating will be forthcoming on monday. Also, the current forecast is for coolerer temps. However, the south and east are predicted to remain dry. There are some issues that could keep the yield near trend. This is not a catastrophy. However some concern. Last, the US at present is the cheap supplier. There is room for a pick up in exports. This will continue to offer support. There is a long road to hoe till harvest. There are other frindly scenarios that could play out. Always quantify the risk.
I want to thank anyone for the commentary regarding the posts. I always welcome agreement and disagreement. the ride is a bumpy one so many thoughts can help. I like to talk about long term outlooks in the market. For a discussion or a conversation 800 993 5449 jwalsh@walshtrading.com
” JUST DO WHAT MUST BE DONE, THIS MAY NOT BE HAPPINESS, BUT IT IS GREATNESS ”
GEORGE BERNARD SHAW
BE WELL