Walsh Daily Bullet Points 11/5

GRAINS

Corn up 2½ to 3¼ overnight after closing up 3¼ Wednesday, having hit a four-month low at 4.38½ first
Farmer selling has slowed and a short-covering rebound is seen as overdue
Open interest jumped 23,392 Wednesday, so new shorts kept coming in at the low
Funds are now seen as having exited their long position in corn
Wheat up 5¼ to 6¾ overnight, after Chicago settled 5.99¼
IKAR cut Russia’s 2026-27 wheat export forecast to 39.5 million tonnes from 42 million, and total grain exports to 49.5 from 52.8 million
Rail and Baltic routes have little spare capacity left, and the planned mid-November closure of river navigation could tighten export availability further into winter
Black Sea peace talks in Abu Dhabi Nov 10-11 are still capping rallies
US wheat is in good shape heading into dormancy, with emergence problems reported in Russia and Europe
Open interest: Chicago wheat +2,694

Beans up 3¼ to 3½ overnight after settling 12.03¾, another two-and-a-half-month low
The new problem is bean oil, which fell 190 points to 63.38 and traded at a six-month low
Soyoil open interest rose 12,216 in a single session, the clearest new short selling in the complex
Meal was the only green leg, up 1.90 to 319.90, and it’s up another 2.20 to 2.40 overnight
Crush fell to 206½ on the sheet, under $2.07, with oil at 50.50% of product value
Malaysian palm slumped below MYR 4,500 to its lowest since June on a stronger ringgit, weak Dalian and Chicago oils, and the crude collapse
Iowa soybean harvest is 90% complete
China’s foreign ministry is emphasizing stability with Washington, and analysts expect the strategic equilibrium around the 25 million tonne purchase commitment to hold
Open interest: beans −2,644, meal −3,874
Canola settled 768.80, down 13.00

Cash cattle collapsed this week, with steers averaging $217.26 and heifers $217.56 against last week’s $223.65
Live cattle fell 12 cents to 218.02, another six-week low, and feeders dropped 2.60 to 325.77, a four-week low
Cattle failed to bounce even though stocks had their best day since August, which is unusual given how closely the two usually track
Boxed beef prices were lower again
Hogs fell 1.12 to 57.48, another contract low, with Thursday’s CME index down $1.06 at $63.93
Hog sector margins have split sharply— producers are deep in the red while packers have rebounded

Cotton rallied 1.11 to 78.15, back above the 78-cent level it lost last week, and the only soft with a friendly supply story
Cocoa up 23 to 5,529, lifted by dollar weakness
Sugar up 14 to 18.47, though still pressured by the crude collapse
Coffee settled 279.75, down 4.20

Crude’s down— Brent is down almost 20% this week, on track for its biggest weekly drop since April 2020, after hitting a six-month high last week
WTI settled 88.29, down 7.81, and is up 1.3% at $89.24 this morning
Morgan Stanley puts last week’s regional crude exports at 18.4 million barrels a day, about 102% of pre-war normal, including routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz
Saxo’s Ole Hansen cautions that many vessels are out of position, some are sailing with tracking off, insurance is still very expensive, and Iran reported two more tanker incidents in Hormuz including one striking a mine
Two Russian diesel tankers bound for the US abruptly veered off course, with a third signalling “for orders”
US distillate inventories have fallen below 100 million barrels for the first time in over two decades
Stocks had their best day since August— Dow up 1,569.40, S&P up 119.70, Nasdaq 100 up 256.90
Gold jumped 133.30 to 4,061.20, silver rose 2.572 to 52.325 and platinum gained 70.60
Deere is phasing out two Iowa plants, moving windrower and round-baler production from Ottumwa to Des Moines and Hagie sprayer production from Clarion to Louisiana
10-year 4.89%, down again, with futures firmer across the curve

Dec corn 4.45¾ (+3¼) · Dec Chicago wheat 5.99¼ (−½)
Jan beans 12.03¾ (−10¼) · Dec meal 319.90 (+1.90) · Dec soyoil 63.38 (−1.90)
Dec live cattle 218.02 (−0.12) · Jan feeders 325.77 (−2.60) · Dec hogs 57.48 (−1.12)
Mar cocoa 5,529 (+23) · Mar sugar 18.47 (+0.14) · Dec cotton 78.15 (+1.11)
Crush (Dec): 206½ — oil 50.50%, meal 49.50%