Walsh Daily Bullet Points 11/6

GRAINS

Corn up ¼ to ½ overnight after hitting a four-month low Thursday and settling 4.40¾
Open interest rose another 18,127 Thursday, following Wednesday’s 23,392, so shorts keep building
Analysts expect USDA to trim its corn yield in next week’s crop production and supply-and-demand reports
Wheat down 7¾ to 8¼ overnight
Black Sea peace talks in Abu Dhabi Nov 10-11 are keeping pressure on prices
IKAR’s cut to Russia’s export forecast lifted wheat Thursday but hasn’t held
An early season cold surge drops through the eastern US Tuesday through Nov 15, with below normal temperatures in the Great Lakes, eastern Midwest and Atlantic states
Canada’s Prairies and the north-central US stay unusually warm, with little precipitation
except heavy rain and mountain snow on the west coast
Nutrien reported third-quarter earnings of 61 cents against expectations of 80 cents, saying financially squeezed farmers are deferring nitrogen purchases, especially in Brazil, while potash demand stays strong

Beans down ¼ to up ½ overnight after settling 11.88¼, another two-and-a-half-month low
Bean oil is still dragging the complex, down 36 points overnight after settling 62.24, a six-month low
Meal is the one green leg, up 2.40 to 2.60 overnight after settling 317.20
Malaysian palm fell below MYR 4,350 to its lowest since March and is set for its biggest weekly drop in nearly two years
Indonesia cut its November crude palm oil reference price by more than 6% and lowered its export levy, which adds to the competition
Palm oil competes with soybean oil, so lower palm prices are dragging on soybean oil
Brent is down close to 20% on the week, which reduces biodiesel demand for both oils
Crush fell to about $1.94, down from $2.47 in late October
Open interest: beans +4,706, meal −4,007, soyoil +1,849
Canola settled 753.20, down 15.10

Live cattle fell 3.60 to 214.40, a two-month low, with January feeders down 5.40 to 320.325, a six-week low
Thursday’s stock market meltdown added to the pressure, along with weak cash trade and lower boxed beef
Cash cattle this week averaged $217.26 for steers and $217.56 for heifers, against $223.65 last week and $227.06 the week before
Hogs fell 2.45 to 55.10, another contract low
Friday’s CME hog index is down $1.07 at $62.86, leaving futures about $7.75 under cash

Cotton rose 69 to 78.80, holding above 78 cents and the only soft with a friendly supply story
Sugar up 9 to 18.60
Coffee down 2.60 to 277.15
The FAO Food Price Index fell to 133.9 in October from 135.6 in September on weaker cereal, dairy and meat prices, still 5.9% above a year ago but 16.4% below the March 2022 peak

Dow down 1,833.06, S&P down 334.89, Nasdaq 100 down 1,807.36, the biggest one-day percentage drops since April 2025
The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 12.3%, its worst day since March 2020, with the Nasdaq entering correction
The trigger was fear that Democratic midterm wins will threaten data center buildouts, which turned into indiscriminate selling of anything tied to AI
Stock futures point mostly higher this morning
Crude bounced, WTI up 0.5% at $91.01 after settling 90.86, but is still down more than 12% over five days
Iran reported more tanker fires in the Strait of Hormuz
Gold climbed above $4,100 to 4,102.00, up 40.90, while silver slipped to 51.850
October jobs report lands at 7:30 CT, with payrolls expected at 59,000 against 29,000 in
September and unemployment steady at 2%
Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye says a strong number gives Fed hawks fuel for hikes in
December and again in March
Richmond Fed’s Barkin sees rate hikes ahead but at a gradual pace
Apollo’s Torsten Slok notes unemployment has been below 5% for 61 straight months, three short of the 1965-70 record
Congressional Democrats are drafting legislation to roll back the Canada tariffs, with Sen Ron Wyden leading
10-year near 4.87%, at two-month lows, with futures rallying hard as traders moved out of tech and into safe havens

Dollar index 101.59, up 0.5% this morning as it regains footing after election volatility
Euro 1.1235 and losing momentum, Aussie weaker, yen firmer

Dec corn 4.40¾ (−4½) · Dec Chicago wheat 5.99¼ (+¾) · Dec KC wheat 6.35¾ (+3)
Jan beans 11.88¼ (−14) · Dec meal 317.20 (−1.40) · Dec soyoil 62.24 (−1.29)
Dec live cattle 214.40 (−3.60) · Jan feeders 320.325 (−5.40) · Dec hogs 55.10 (−2.45)
Dec cotton 78.80 (+0.69) · Mar sugar 18.60 (+0.09) · Dec coffee 277.15 (−2.60)
Crush (Dec): about $1.94—meal 50.5%, oil 49.5%