Soybeans–
After several sessions in a row with a tighter trading range, soybeans closed higher heading into Thanksgiving. Yesterday it was reported that China bought 10-15 cargoes of US soybeans. Soybean meal continues to hold support. I’m starting to think soybean meal could be getting ready for another move higher. I still like being long soybean oil in the deferred month options. Temperatures are expected to be cooler in the Midwest over the weekend, with chances of snow in the forecast.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1131 (+6), high of 1135, low of 1122. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1140 (+6), high of 1144, low of 1132. Cash price is at 1095 (+1)
January Bean Meal (ZMF26) settled at 320.4 (unchanged) high of 322.1, low of 319.1
January Bean Oil (ZLF26)) settled at 51.03 (+0.38) high of 51.28, low of 50.49
Meal to Oil ratio (55.750% Meal – 44.250% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1125) 5-day, (1128) 20-day, (1077) 50-day, (1060) 100-day, (1051) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1134) 5-day, (1137) 20-day, (1089) 50-day, (1073) 100-day, (1061) 200-day
ZMF26 Moving Averages – (319.2) 5-day, (322.0) 20-day, (300.2) 50-day, (295.0) 100-day, (302.0) 200-day
ZLZF26 Moving Averages – (50.75) 5-day, (50.61) 20-day, (50.74) 50-day, (52.25) 100-day, (50.10) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 431 (+8), high of 433, low of 423. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 445 (+7). Cash price is 415 (-1)
Corn was higher today, along with soybeans. The seasonal outlook improves heading into December and January. Seasonal charts show a weaker price trend for November and early December. Open interest in corn has been falling, down 40k contracts yesterday. Managed money was short nearly 200k contracts in mid-October, more short covering is likely taking place. The corn chart looks strong. Support levels are holding up well. It seems possible that corn could make a move to 460-470 from here.
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (439) 5-day, (444) 20-day, (440) 50-day, (435) 100-day, (448) 200-day
ZCK26 Moving Averages – (446) 5-day, (452) 20-day, (448) 50-day, (445) 100-day, (457) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 529 (+1), with a high of 533, low of 523. March ‘26 Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 540 (+1). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 519 (unchanged). March KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 537 (+18).
Wheat was higher, but less than the other grains. Fundamentals for wheat are still largely bearish. Managed money was short over 100k contracts in October. Wheat has likely seen some short covering since then. Australia and Argentina are expected to have bumper crops. Australia’s crop estimate was raised by LSEG to 35.6 mmt, up 2%. LSEG raised its estimate for Argentina’s production to 21.0 mmt. The USDA has Argentina’s crop at 22.0 mmt.
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (539) 5-day, (549) 20-day, (537) 50-day, (547) 100-day, (578) 200-day
ZWK26 Moving Averages – (547) 5-day, (558) 20-day, (548) 50-day, (558) 100-day, (588) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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