1/19/24
The Livestock markets all closed lower today. April’24 Live Cattle was stuck in dollar range today, waiting for the Cattle on Feed Report. April’24 Live Cattle was 0.275 lower today and settled at 177.375, in the middle of today’s range. The high today of 177.875 was just below the 1-month high of 177.975. The 1-month low is 171.075. Since 12/19 April’24 Live Cattle is 4.375 higher or just over 2 ½%. The Feeders were also lower today. March’24 Feeder Cattle were 0.600 lower today and settled at 231.950, just above today’s low of 231.525. The high today of 233.350 was just below the 1-month high of 233.450. The 1-month low is 221.100. Since 12/19 March’24 Feeder Cattle are 8.725 higher or almost 4%. The Hogs were down as well. April’24 Lean Hogs were 0.300 lower today and settled at 78.150, just above today’s low of 77.925. Today’s high of 78.650 is just a dollar below the 1-month high of 79.650. The 1-month and the 52-week low is 71.700. Since 12/19 April’24 Lean Hogs are 0.600 higher or about ¾%. The Grains were mixed today. March’24 Soybeans had a 17 ¾ cent range today and settled down ¼ of a cent at 1213 ¼, not far from today’s low of 1210 ¾. The 1-month high is 1328 ¼ if you can believe that. The 1-month low is close at 1201. I noticed today that the 52-week low is 1154 ¼… Since 12/19 March’24 Soybeans are down $109.75 or over 8%. That was a quick dollar plus break, I hope you caught it as well. If you did not catch that dollar break, you need to be prepared to catch the next one, or the one after that. The Corn Market closed higher today. March’24 Corn was 1 ½ cents higher today and settled at 445 ½, 2 ½ cents above today’s low of 443. The 1-month and 52-week low is 436 ¾. Since 12/19 March’24 Corn is down 27 ¼ cents or close to 6%. The Wheat Market caught a bid today and closed higher. March’24 Wheat gained 7 ¾ cents today and settled at 593 ¼. The 1-month high is 639 ¾ and the 1-month low is 573 ¼. The 52-week low is 556 ¼. Since 12/19 March’24 Wheat is 29 ½ cents lower or close to 5%. The Cattle on Feed Report came out this afternoon and it said placements for December were 95.5% of a year ago, and December markings were 99.1% of a year ago. The January 1st on feed supply was 102.1%, compared to 102.2% expected. The report did not look very bullish or bearish. With the recent rally in the Cattle Market, I would rather be short than long over the weekend. The Soybean Market showed yet again, that selling into any strength can be beneficial. I think it’s better to sell it when you can, not when you have to. I still feel that the Cattle markets will start to head lower again next week, and the Soybeans will continue to break and drag the Corn down with it. I will be at CattleCon in Orlando on the January 30th – February 3rd. If you would like to meet there, give me a call. Maybe I see things differently, but I still see opportunity. Call me if you would like to talk about it. This Fall’s Current Prices: October’24 Live Cattle 179.350, August’24 Feeder Cattle 257.875, August’24 Lean Hogs 93.325.
LIVE CATTLE CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| APR’24 177.375 | 180C | 3.025 | $1,210 |
| 185C | 1.425 | $570 | |
| 190C | 0.625 | $250 | |
| ATM 177C 4.425 | ATM STRADDLE 8.475 | EXPIRES 4/5/24 | |
| JUN’24 174.325 | 180C | 3.225 | $1,290 |
| 185C | 1.800 | $720 | |
| 190C | 0.975 | $390 | |
| ATM 174C 5.800 | ATM STRADDLE 11.275 | EXPIRES 6/7/24 | |
| AUG’24 174.775 | 186C | 2.475 | $990 |
| 190C | 1.675 | $670 | |
| 196C | 0.900 | $360 | |
| ATM 174C 7.025 | ATM STRADDLE 13.300 | EXPIRES 8/2/24 |
LIVE CATTLE PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| APR’24 177.375 | 170P | 1.600 | $640 |
| 165P | 0.750 | $300 | |
| 160P | 0.013 | $5.20 | |
| ATM 177P 4.050 | ATM STRADDLE 8.475 | EXPIRES 4/5/24 | |
| JUN’24 174.325 | 170P | 3.800 | $1,520 |
| 165P | 2.275 | $910 | |
| 160P | 1.300 | $520 | |
| ATM 174P 5.475 | ATM STRADDLE 11.275 | EXPIRES 6/7/24 | |
| AUG’24 174.775 | 166P | 3.325 | $1,330 |
| 160P | 1.900 | $760 | |
| 156P | 1.275 | $510 | |
| ATM 174P 6.275 | ATM STRADDLE 13.300 | EXPIRES 8/2/24 |
OCTOBER’24 LIVE CATTLE
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 179.350 | 10% BULL MOVE | 197.285 | 196C | 1.900 |
| 179.350 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 161.415 | 162P | 1.975 |
| 179.350 | 20% BULL MOVE | 215.220 | 214C | 0.375 |
| 179.350 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 143.480 | 144P | 0.400 |
| 179.350 | 30% BULL MOVE | 233.155 | 232C | 0.125 |
| 179.350 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 125.545 | 120P | 0.075 |
FEEDER CATTLE CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 231.950 | 240C | 2.975 | $1,487.50 |
| 245C | 1.850 | $925 | |
| 250C | 1.150 | $575 | |
| ATM 232C 6.025 | ATM STRADDLE 12.100 | EXPIRES 3/28/24 | |
| APR’24 237.475 | 245C | 4.875 | $2,437.50 |
| 250C | 3.425 | $1,712.50 | |
| 255C | 2.375 | $1,187.50 | |
| ATM 237C 8.175 | ATM STRADDLE 15.875 | EXPIRES 4/25/24 | |
| MAY’24 242.300 | 250C | 6.425 | $3,212.50 |
| 260C | 3.550 | $1,775 | |
| 270C | 1.925 | $962.50 | |
| ATM 242C 9.825 | ATM STRADDLE 19.375 | EXPIRES 5/23/24 |
FEEDER CATTLE PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 231.950 | 225P | 3.225 | $1,612.50 |
| 220P | 1.950 | $975 | |
| 215P | 1.150 | $575 | |
| ATM 232P 6.075 | ATM STRADDLE 12.100 | EXPIRES 3/28/24 | |
| APR’24 237.475 | 230P | 4.800 | $2,400 |
| 225P | 3.275 | $1,637.50 | |
| 220P | 2.175 | $1,087.50 | |
| ATM 237P 7.700 | ATM STRADDLE 15.875 | EXPIRES 4/25/24 | |
| MAY’24 242.300 | 230P | 4.775 | $2,387.50 |
| 216P | 1.850 | $925 | |
| 200P | 0.525 | $262.50 | |
| ATM 242P 9.550 | ATM STRADDLE 19.375 | EXPIRES 5/23/24 |
AUGUST’24 FEEDER CATTLE
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 257.875 | 10% BULL MOVE | 283.662 | 282C | 3.375 |
| 257.875 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 232.087 | 234P | 5.125 |
| 257.875 | 20% BULL MOVE | 309.450 | 308C | 1.825 |
| 257.875 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 206.300 | 208P | 1.300 |
| 257.875 | 30% BULL MOVE | 335.237 | 334C | 0.750 |
| 257.875 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 180.512 | 182P | 0.250 |
LEAN HOG CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| APR’24 78.150 | 85C | 1.175 | $470 |
| 90C | 0.450 | $180 | |
| 95C | 0.200 | $80 | |
| ATM 78C 3.850 | ATM STRADDLE 7.550 | EXPIRES 4/12/24 | |
| JUN’24 91.650 | 100C | 1.775 | $710 |
| 106C | 0.775 | $310 | |
| 110C | 0.425 | $170 | |
| ATM 92C 4.850 | ATM STRADDLE 10.050 | EXPIRES 6/14/24 | |
| JUL’24 93.425 | 100C | 2.600 | $1.040 |
| 106C | 1.225 | $490 | |
| 110C | 0.725 | $290 | |
| ATM 94C 5.100 | ATM STRADDLE 10.750 | EXPIRES 7/15/24 |
LEAN HOG PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| APR’24 78.150 | 75P | 2.450 | $980 |
| 70P | 1.100 | $440 | |
| 65P | 0.475 | $190 | |
| ATM 78P 3.700 | ATM STRADDLE 7.550 | EXPIRES 4/12/24 | |
| JUN’24 91.650 | 86P | 2.750 | $1,100 |
| 80P | 1.275 | $510 | |
| 76P | 0.775 | $310 | |
| ATM 92P 5.200 | ATM STRADDLE 10.050 | EXPIRES 6/14/24 | |
| JUL’24 93.425 | 86P | 2.550 | $1,020 |
| 80P | 1.225 | $490 | |
| 76P | 0.750 | $300 | |
| ATM 94P 5.650 | ATM STRADDLE 10.750 | EXPIRES 7/15/24 |
AUGUST’24 LEAN HOGS
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 93.325 | 10% BULL MOVE | 102.657 | 100C | 2.875 |
| 93.325 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 83.992 | 84P | 2.325 |
| 93.325 | 20% BULL MOVE | 111.990 | 110C | 0.850 |
| 93.325 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 74.660 | 76P | 0.925 |
| 93.325 | 30% BULL MOVE | 121.322 | 120C | 0.275 |
| 93.325 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 65.327 | 66P | 0.300 |
THE ABOVE PRICES REFLECT CURRENT DATE AND SETTLEMENT PRICES AND EXCLUDES THE COST OF COMMISSIONS AND FEES. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS WHEN TRADING FUTURES OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND EACH INVESTOR OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER IT IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PURCHASE OF LONG OPTIONS CAN RESULT IN THE LOSS OF THE ENTIRE PURCHASE PRICE PLUS COSTS.
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Bill Allen
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Direct: 1 312 957 8079
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