11/20/23
Guess what the Wheat market did today… correct, it broke again. The Wheat market simply can’t catch a bid. March’24 Wheat was 5 ¼ cents lower today and settled at 570 ½. Today’s low of 567 ¾, is also the 1-month and 52-week low. Since 10/20 March’24 Wheat is 43 cents lower, or 7%. March’24 Corn gained 2 ¼ cents today and settled at 487 ½. Since 10/11 March’24 Corn is down 21 ½, or over 4%. The Soybean market was interesting today. January’24 Soybeans were 27 cents higher today and settled at 1367 ¼, just below today’s high at 1368. Since 10/20 January’24 Soybeans are 47 cents higher, or 3 ½%. Last week when President Biden met with China’s President XI, there were no announcements of grain purchases, so I believe the rally is all based on the weather in Brazil. I think it’s another selling opportunity. I still believe the $13.00 level is coming soon. This is a great time to hedge, or spec trade in July’24 Soybeans, they settled at 1398 ½ today. The Cattle on Feed Report on Friday somehow caused a quick rally this morning, but it did not last long. February’24 Live Cattle was 0.150 lower today and settled at 176.650. Today’s high in February’24 Live Cattle was 178.725. Since 10/20 February’24 Cattle are down 11.050, or almost 6%. The Feeders were able to close higher today. January’24 Feeder Cattle gained 1.350 and settled at 229.850. They traded as high as 232.200 today, but turned around from there, and broke with the Live Cattle. The Feeders traded as low as 127.450 today. Since 10/20 January’24 Feeder Cattle are down 13.125, nearly 5 ½%. February’24 Lean Hogs were 0.400 lower today and settled at 75.050. Since 10/20 February’24 Lean Hogs have gained 4.625, or more than 6 ½%. I will continue to be Bearish the Soybean and Cattle markets. That said, these markets are going to move, and whatever direction they pick, there is opportunity to hedge or trade in the Option markets.
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Bill Allen
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