Walsh Trading Daily Insights Commentary August Lean Hogs opened lower, traded to the session low at 110.70 and worked its way to the session high at 113.225, settling nearby at 112.825. The opening breakdown tested the gap created with the Friday high at 110.50 and the Monday low at 111.325 as bulls regained control of the price action before closing …
October Feeder Cattle 7/19
The USDA crop condition report that came out yesterday showed that the corn Good to Excellent rating remained at 64%. This came as somewhat of a shock to traders as some were expecting the hot and dry weather to have a more detrimental effect on the crop. I still believe this could still be the case for the following week …
Dec Cattle 7/18
Weather seems to be dominating the headlines recently which is causing the agricultural markets to become a little more volatile these next couple weeks. Dec cattle closed up .725 today on decent volume which leads me to believe that there will be some follow through action tomorrow, especially if the heat wave fears turn into reality. Cutout values today closed …
Grain Spreads: Bean Balance
Commentary Soybeans found itself in the crossfire between a hot/dry WCB forecast the next 10 days and a profit taking realignment in the oil share trade in my opinion. Current weather outlooks for the critical August pod setting and filling period could be seen as somewhat worrisome, since temperature forecasts are warmer than normal, and precipitation is leaning towards the …
Weekly Cattle Wrap-up
Overall, the cattle market was up about $1 this week with it hitting a high a 137.400 in the August contract. Food prices increased 10.4% from a year ago and the US exported 321 million pounds of beef in May which is an all-time record. There is a focus on the exports now due to the fact of surging domestic …
Market Commentary
GENERAL The CPI was out. The 9.1 number is higher than anticipated. The ramifications of this reading are just starting to be felt. This number in my opinion does a couple things. First it reinforces the fact that the interest rates will need to continue to climb. This can be quick or over a protracted period. It’s like medicine to …
DEC Cattle and WASDE 7/12
The USDA WASDE report came out today and showed that red meat production is expected to drop due to a lower carcass weight by 2023. Beef import forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are unchanged from last month. Export forecasts are raised for both years based on firm international demand. The 2nd quarter cattle price forecasts for the ’22 year are …
Grain Spreads: Wheat Pressure
Commentary It is my belief that the wheat futures markets today fell victim to a big surge in the U.S. dollar index to another 20-year high, prompting further worries about already slack U.S. wheat export demand. The wheat markets also lost more ground today when the corn and soybean futures markets backed well off their overnight highs and finished near …
December Cattle 7/11
December cattle had a strong day today closing up 1.425 on the day on some pretty big volume. I’ve been hearing that there have been higher cash trades being circulated around the 5-state area today which gave the market more support. Based off of Friday afternoon trades, some cash prices traded around the 143.5 price. U.S. beef exports increased 2.1 …
Market Commentary
GENERAL – The stock market is moderating as inflation starts to move more sideways. Please remember sideways at record highs over the last decades. It is my belief the cost of capital will continue to increase. Therefore the stock market rallies represent a sale. It is just where. Quantify the risk. ENERGY – The crude bounces again today. Please think …