December cattle had a strong day today closing up 1.425 on the day on some pretty big volume. I’ve been hearing that there have been higher cash trades being circulated around the 5-state area today which gave the market more support. Based off of Friday afternoon trades, some cash prices traded around the 143.5 price. U.S. beef exports increased 2.1 percent year over year in May, contributing to a 5.9 percent year over year increase for the first five months of the year. Beef exports are growing more slowly so far this year, but the increase is on top of record exports in 2021. Forecasts suggest that total beef exports for the year may end up about equal to last year or down slightly. The strong U.S. dollar may provide additional headwinds for beef exports going forward. December cattle finished at 146.50 today and is still within the $2.50-$3 range that it has been in since June 24th.
Today’s price action has been an “outside day” with today’s low being lower than Friday’s low and today’s high being higher than Friday’s high. In my opinion, I think the market will continue to be bolstered by not only the fundamentals of tighter 4th quarter supply but also the technical aspect of what happened today. I believe the market will trade higher in the short term up to the 1st level of resistance to the June 21st high of 148.825.