Market Commentary

walshtradingGeneral Commentary, Grains

GENERAL – The stock market is moderating as inflation starts to move more sideways. Please remember sideways at record highs over the last decades. It is my belief the cost of capital will continue to increase. Therefore the stock market rallies represent a sale. It is just where. Quantify the risk. 

ENERGY – The crude bounces again today. Please think regarding the overall energy policy. In my opinion it is so flawed, unless demand is shut down completely the crude has a natural bid under it. In addition the global market has at present no desire to appease the US needs. This will continue. However, it is important to note demand is on the decline. This is important but probably not enough of a decline to matter yet on the macro sense.

SOY

The beans rallied today. As mentioned yesterday the market will now focus on the upcoming weather. As well as the demand from China. The USDA releases the stocks report next week. This will be important as most expect a decline. The longer term also will look at the acreage and if the USDA will show further declines or a surprise with northern acres added back. I haven’t a clue.

MEAL/OIL –  As mentioned the oil share lost enough. The bean oil was able to rally back today with both global bean oil and palm oil showing gains. This could last a bit more. The crude strength also has had an effect. It is however my belief at present that the highs are in bean oil. I am looking for a further rally as an opportunity. The meal remained higher. There may be a bit more strength. I am looking at meal however, as the highs are in. The Aug forward spreads should be watched. They have given up 6-8 dollars in two trading sessions. The domestic hogs are contracting a bit. As well as the Chinese market due to Covid lock down.

BE WELL,

John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
800-993-5449
312-208-8836
jwalsh@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.​

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.​

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.