It’s tough to resist the temptation to pick a bottom especially when the weather isn’t looking cooperative for getting the bean, corn, oat, spring and durum wheat into the ground at a reasonable time. If old crop stocks weren’t as plentiful as they are then we might have a little bit of delayed planting anxiety but, the market needs …
Livestock Report
June Live Cattle broke down to the 120.75 support level reaching a low of 120.85 on Monday April 22, 2019. Support held and the market recovered at the end of the day to settle at 121.575, just below the 121.90 key level. A breakout above 121.90 could see price test 122.825 and then work its way towards the 124.30 …
Serendipity
There appears to be no urgency to own anything s the world is comfortably covered through new crop everything. Weather problems appear to be hiccups as we can plant all the corn, beans, spring and durum wheat, oats, sorghum in an instant given the new technology. Above normal moisture in the 6 to 10 day forecast for the Heartland …
Weakening Spreads?
Chicago wheat spreads may be on the verge of giving up and carry might start working its way back in. May futures are dangerous and most traders should not venture into this shallow water yet as new crop harvest approaches the race is on to capture what premium is still there. Chicago still holds an unnatural premium to Kansas …
Easter Positioning
Field reports of corn getting into the ground in Missouri, Iowa and southeastern Nebraska but any ground to the west or north still appears to be too wet to work. There appears to be a sense that when the weather turns that we’ll have the ability and fortitude to plant about 5 million acres of corn each day and …
Rain Makes Grain
Bears are in charge as the weather is still perceived as beneficial to wheat development and a minor road block for corn and bean plantings and moisture, not too extreme, is usually considered to be more of a blessing than a curse! Farmers are long and funds are short and world grain stocks appear to be growing. The United …
Livestock Report
June Live Cattle consolidated in the upper end of its trading range on Monday. It poked its nose above resistance at 121.90, reaching the high at 121.925. It settled at 121.475. A breakout above 121.90 could see price test 122.825 and then work its way towards the 124.30 resistance level. A break down from settlement could see price test …
Grain Spreads: 7 Shorts
We have had three instances in the last ten years where managed funds have been short seven grain contracts. Funds have consistently been short all three wheat classes plus corn and have been selling rallies in these contracts since December. The soy complex has seen them flip from short to long to short again recently as a severe weather premium …
Planting Progress
It is a holiday shortened week as we observe Good Friday on April 19. First notice day against the May futures is only 9 trading sessions away after today. Basis levels suggest that we might see healthy corn and bean deliveries while wheat may be light depending upon how the southern crop is coming along. Harvest pressure might put …
Waiting and Watching
One of these days the market may decide to move and the reason for the move might be because of some weather problem such as too much rain for plantings, too much rain for wheat harvest, too hot and dry for crop development. Or, the market just might continue to tread water as the macroeconomic influences such as a …