The soy lower led by meal. The markets are buy the rumor sell the fact this week. In addition, the weather in South America improves theoretically for arg and brazil both. This is to be expected. The desire is to find reasons to be bullish when there are actually few reasons. The crops are huge and the demand is declining. …
Sentry Duty
If the world is experiencing an economic slowdown generated by trade wars and/or central bank overplaying quantitative easing/tightening then there’s little reason to amass inventories of corn, beans and wheat…………….What’s the rush to own?……………. South American weather is allowing the corn and bean crops to prosper and wet weather for wheat during harvest may lessen quality yet increases the …
Livestock Report
March Feeder Cattle tested support early in the trading session, declining to 142.725 which just above the 142.40 support level. Price reversed course and challenged resistance at 145.05, reaching 144.975 for the session high. It settled at 144.30, right at the 144.20 key level. If this level holds look for a retest of resistance at 145.05 and then 146.20. A …
March Lumber Option Strategy……Timber!!!
Lumber in my opinion, can potentially move lower towards 275.00 and potentially 250.00 for the MARCH CME Futures Contract last at 331.40 as of this writing(see chart).Today’s housing numbers indicate weakness in both existing single family and new single family homes. Construction in new single family homes hitting a 1.5 year low, while housing starts also fell in the revisions …
South American Weather
It will be a surprise if the Federal Reserve does not raise rates tomorrow! South American weather is bearish for corn and beans and supportive for wheat…………………..some are saying that it’s tough to be short whea tright now as soft red wheat off the US Gulf is the cheapest in the world and the trade is always afraid …
Bleeding Fear
MACRO BACKDROP: Welcome back. Holidays are nigh, folks. That said, the equities were anything but jovial today, it seems. The red had nothing to do with Santa Claus or some reindeer’s nose. European news and China were probably less of a focal point in domestic markets today. Stocks across the board were sold off, bleeding hard. Weaker U.S. economic …
Livestock Report
Cattle markets broke down today as steady cash trade on Friday fails to impress. March Feeder Cattle broke down past support at 143.50 and traded down to the December 4th low at 143.125 on the continuous chart. It settled nearby at 143.325. A new low on Tuesday could see price test support at 142.40. A panic sell could see price …
AG TIME – Time is Running Out
The soy bouncing a bit here today led by meal. The thought again the Chinese could buy more beans. They need to. There is something amiss here. The market is so oversupplied. And overpriced in my way of thought. We are fast approaching Brazilian harvest. Oh wait, the market wants to focus on the dry area of Brazil and the …
Looking Ahead
Southern hemisphere weather, Federal Reserve policy and geopolitical happenings might be the focus of the grain markets for the next month…………….The January crop reports(the Mother of All Reports) is set be released on January 11 at 11:00 Chicago time! The USDA is scheduled to release the final production figures, grain stocks as of December 1, winter wheat seeding and …
Grain Spreads: Old Crop/New Crop..Kc/Chicago wheat
It was about as dull a close for grains to end this week as one could of asked for today. A higher Dollar and a very weak and volatile stock market were two of the culprits that spurred liquidation of wheat, corn, and beans into the close. Soy meal (see chart) has no friends and maybe being pulled lower due …