The bean market rallied today,the reason sited is the 12 bln aide package rolled out to farmers. This band aide will assist this crop season. I am obviously pro agriculture. I would say that it is my observation that govt programs are rarely a friendly scenario. Depending on the details which I have yet to see this could ultimately pay …
AG TIME – Biding Time
A two sided quiet trade was the feature today. The condition ratings showed a slight improvement as some beneficial rains have been received. The reality of the beans is that the ratings are high. This creates a cushion. The yield prospects are good at present. A severe drought situation could impact the market but that is not at present likely. …
Livestock Report
Live Cattle On Friday July 20, 2018 the August Live Cattle contract traded in a quiet sleepy session as traders waited for cash to trade and the Cattle on Feed report. It made a nominal new high for the up move reaching 109.35 and made a lower low from Thursday’s trading session making an outside day candlestick. It settled at …
Grain Spreads: Stem the Tide
Corn and Beans finally saw some decent short covering this week buoyed by lower than expected good to excellent conditions on Mondays crop progress report, while wheat is aided by lower than expected global production in Europe, the Black Sea, and South America in my view. With tariffs still a bearish backdrop, its too early to determine where this bean …
AG TIME
There are many considerations in the market at present. The President threatened the full monty today with all Chinese exports to the US under tariff. This will not transpire in my opinion because I believe China will capitulate. The Chinese wont want this to transpire. At present the Chinese currency is under sincere pressure. This is a defense tactic but …
AG TIME big changes
The soy traded both sides. Some thoughts. The Chinese bean stocks are up from a year earlier. Global soy coverage is very high given the crush margins. The meal demand in China is slowing, leading to a slow down in their internal crush rate. All this spells a long term change in business flows. In addition, the way China looks …
Livestock Report
Live Cattle On Wednesday July 18, 2018 the August Live Cattle contract traded higher, breaking through the 108.65 resistance level on its way to the session high at 109.15. It settled above resistance at 108.95. The strong close could lead to a test of resistance at 109.825 and then 110.80. Support now comes in at 108.65 and 107.35. Negotiated cash …
Grain Spreads: There’s Still Time Part 2
Corn sits here approximately 12 cents off the yearly lows for new crop corn awaiting further direction. While there were some rumors swirling yesterday and today regarding an unwind of future tariffs with China that would most likely provide an AG relief rally, both corn and beans couldn’t muster any continuation to the upside. Those not hedged corn should consider …
AG TIME – And Now We Wait
The Soy markets are biding time now. The beans have bounced a bit. This could continue with a further reduction in ratings. The bean ratings, like corn, are in a high end of the condition ratings from a historic perspective. My personal upside potential without a real problem is 865-880 basis Aug. For the record that should push Nov 19 …
Livestock Report
Live Cattle On Tuesday July 17, 2018 the August Live Cattle contract consolidated after Monday’s limit up move. A nominal new high (107.60 vs. Monday’s 107.55) above the 107.35 resistance level failed to attract buyers. Price pulled back nearing the 106.025 support level, with the session low at 106.125. It settled near the low at 106.425. A breakdown below the …