The beans have marked a near term low. This rally will present another selling opportunity. However, be patient. The funds are short and some fears over weather are necessary. They are not realistic in my opinion but necessary. It means little if the carry is 580 or 520. There will be a record amount of beans available in the world. …
Grain Spreads: Who’s buying tomorrow?
Crop conditions out this afternoon showed declining ratings for both corn and beans. Lets put tariffs aside for a moment. Corn dropped 3 points on the week to 72 percent good to excellent while beans dropped 2 points to 69 percent. There are a few trouble spots most notably in Kansas and Missouri where good to excellent conditions sit at …
AG TIME – Expensive or Cheap?
I would like to say that expensive and or cheap has no reality in the marketplace. The markets will seek a level either up or down that in is line with the overall supply relative to demand from a historic perspective. That is not to say that there aren’t times of erratic movement; there are. It is, however, my opinion …
Livestock Report
Live Cattle On Friday July 13, 2018 the August Live Cattle contract consolidated in a quiet trading session as traders waited for cash to trade and the cash market waited for futures to make any kind of a move. The cash trade by the futures close had not traded as packer bids remained lower than last week’s trade and producer …
AG TIME
The soy continues its decline. There are some things to consider here. My personal long term target for beans is $7.70. We are within 5% of that at present. Close enough for government work as they say. Perhaps we go a bit lower. My point – I think the markets will stabilize in this range and are due some rally. …
Grain Spreads: Delayed Reaction
Beans finished 15 cents lower today as the search for the bottom continues in soy. Enhanced tariffs on China and optimal growing weather were the culprits again this week which has become an all too familiar refrain in the grain market. The move lower today in soybeans is something that I thought would have occurred on report day which was …
AG TIME – Vindication
The USDA report today offers a realistic look as to where we are in my opinion. The numbers across the board are bearish. And long term bearish. The market is due a rally, however, this should be met with a thought of an opportunity to hedge production. The domestic carry was raised to 580 for 2018/2019. This is due to …
Livestock Report
Live Cattle On Wednesday July 11, 2018 the August Live Cattle contract continued its descent, trading down past the 103.00 support level on its way to the session low at 102.70. It recovered off the low and settled at 103.85. If cattle can recover from settlement a test of the 104.20 – 104.85 resistance zone is possible. Resistance then comes …
Grain Spreads: Squeezed
New tariffs that are looking to be imposed by the US on China drove the grain price lower yet again. The tariffs were announced after the grain close yesterday as beans closed unchanged with corn down just three cents on Tuesdays close. As markets gapped open lower on last nights open, the bean trade is in search for a bottom …
AG TIME – Report day tomorrow
The market again down sharply. The talk from Trump is heating up as expected. A couple things in my opinion. The bean market was way overvalued based on the numbers. The rhetoric is cited as the reason. Perhaps it sped things up. It is my belief we were coming here anyway. A long term thought. It is my belief this …