Commentary: The soy complex remains lackluster. The market is waiting to see if and when China starts buying. The corona virus obviously has had an effect on the overall marketplace with many aspects of China Ag sector ground to a halt. The difficult part regarding lost demand is that it is typically gone forever. At least that is, an old saying. The global demand outlook remains long term steady, however, when looking at the continued production increases from South America. In addition, the average guess regarding the spring plantings here, it is difficult to get overly friendly. The farmer in general is in a holding pattern regarding sales. The recent stimulus released from the government has helped. It will be important to look at the new crop year realistically. If and when the board price equates to a potentially profitable hedge, it could be wise to quantify a risk and get hedged. The last month has seen oil share fall considerably. The current level of 33.9% is approx 3% below a month ago. The domestic stocks are now climbing with less bio demand. In addition, the palm price has had a downward correction. The crush margins are also in decline as well. This in, my opinion, could be the start of a longer term trend in the crush. As always, quantify your risk. These represent some thoughts for today.
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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