The numbers are history. Time to focus on the weather. Wow! Lots of corn around!
Wheat conditions might have been a little too wet to date yet, there the ingredients are present to bring in a quality crop in a few months. All will be well if we don’t get too cold when we head and experience hot and/or too dry when we turn and then we’ll be hoping for hot and dry through harvest to ensure that the quality will be better than average. One day at a time! Funds are short and the potential to rally is here yet, we’ll need a good reason for the end user to buy the board in KC to ensure quality as the Chicago contract is questionable and unreliable when dealing with assuring milling quality wheat for delivery. Farmers typically give up physical ownership at harvest and then the basis does the work the rest of the year. The Chicago contract is the garbage dump for wheat. Rallies will be easier to happen if there are problems in hard red wheat production areas.
The potential for planting delays for corn are still here and this might equate to a weather premium working into the market for the rest of the growing season. Yet, given the old crop stocks situation we’ll need a very extreme forecast to generate much enthusiasm. Spreads might remain soft through next July but, we might start seeing a little strength in the September 2020 and forward spreads as we may start seeing a draw down and a little anxiety over a tightening pipeline. But, like wheat, it’s growing season and it’s trench warfare every day.
Less corn acres and/or a ratty wheat crop might mean a lot more bean acres this Spring. Only time will tell and the abundance of old crop stocks might give bears more staying power. Regardless, beans are an August crop and we’ll have lots to deal with until that comes.
Were coming into the time of year when weather forecasts can turn the market quickly. Jack be nimble………………Stay in touch!
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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