MACRO BACKDROP: Welcome back, readers. Domestic equities markets have been posting negative closes nearly all month. Losses have appeared broad and wide across nearly all sectors. Selling has been rampant, obviously. In the underlying S& P 500, defensive sectors appear to be the only sectors with gains as scared money may have found a place to hide, in my view. …
Crude Oil Strategy
Crude Oil fundamentals are pointing lower in my opinion, the Hurricane season is close to ending. Gulf platforms are back online, shale production remains strong, and data from the EIA per yesterday’s gov’t data is showing strong builds of crude oil. Also providing stability to the oil outlook in my view is both OPEC and non OPEC areas possibly promising …
Livestock Report – Live Cattle
December Live Cattle recovered from Thursday’s loss on Friday, October 26, 2018. It formed a bullish outside candle as it traded back into the upper part of its 116.025 to 119.75 trading range. It made its high for the day at 118.80 and settled nearby at 118.40. Futures started the day on a weak note, opening below Thursday’s settlement and …
Grain Spreads: Wheat’s Revenge
It was getting ugly in the wheat complex with spec longs among others getting run out well below 5.00 amid yesterday’s rout. Both KC and Chicago contracts were staring at the 4.60 level should we have fallen hard below the last bastions of key support at 4.87 (Chicago) and 4.82 (KC). We have been bemoaning the lack of demand for …
Lean Hog Call Strategy
Hog option strategy. In my opinion, I think Hogs will strengthen further, I am looking at Call option strategies with Put hedge’s. Hogs are highlighted from swine fever, from the world’s largest producer China, with Europe and Russia having the same issue, the Chinese head counts being culled by some 300,000 also Russia and Europe having to do the same. …
AG TIME – Crush it All
The markets are rebounding today led by meal. It is my belief we are potentially on the verge of a large shift in the oilseeds in general. The slow down in Chinese imports is a large story. The ramifications larger. The demand growth for beans and consequentially meal has been unprecedented year after year. This is stalled. Actually predicted to …
Nasd FANGS buckle, Egypt Wheat?
ARP HERE, ALL OPINIONS,ESTIMATES,NEWS,THAT I PERCEIVE MOVE THE MARKET. I have talked for some time in my posts that stocks are overvalued. It is my belief the NASDAQ PE is silly high. My goal is to assist you in these extreme levels through the Olive Line. In my approx 40 years of charting and trading the markets, these may become …
End of October Focus
Storage tightness with beans and corn, first notice day against the November beans, end of the month position squaring, political events and the impact on trade policy and attitudes might be what we will be talking about on Sunday night and Monday morning when we return from the weekend……………………………Of course, most of the air in the room will be spent …
Grains, Consecutive down now? Softs
EQUITIES – STOCKS It is my belief we may be in “The beggar thy neighbor economic cycle.” I can’t remember seeing action in the US like this. Perhaps in Europe and China. US stocks, I put out a OLS in the nasdaq100 at 7685. Nasdaq now has OLB below the market – give a call for levels. Nasdaq – I …
AG TIME FULL PRESSURE
The soy under pressure as harvest rolls on, The weather looks very solid to push harvest numbers. The South American weather has been good. There are a couple areas of concern creeping in. As said yesterday this is a normal scenario. It is impossible to plant a crop over the size area all of SA covers without some areas of …