Soybeans–
Soybeans closed lower again today. September soybeans have support at 1005 and 992. Resistance is at 1020 and 1036. The dollar has continued to struggle, making a new 3-year low in the overnight session last night. A weaker dollar is supportive for exports. But as of right now, China is still not buying U.S. grain. The U.S. has an abundance of soybean meal to export, but China is buying from South America instead. According to Nutrien’s atmospheric scientist, the central United States has a 60% drought risk by the time we get into July and August. The states at risk include: Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, and southern Minnesota.
The Grain Stocks Report comes out Monday, along with the Acreage Report. The average estimate for the soybean stocks is 980 million bushels, with a range of 805 mb to 852 mb. Last year on this report, the USDA came in at 970 mb. For the acreage, the average analyst estimate is 83.655 million acres, with analyst estimates between 82.5 on the low-end and 85.3 on the high-end. On the March Acreage Report, the USDA gave an estimate of 83.495 million acres. Comparing these numbers to last year, analysts are expecting acreage to come in lower than last year’s figure at 87.050 million acres, even if the estimate is above the analyst average.
The period from late June through early October has been a dangerous stretch over the last 15 years. Over this timeframe soybeans saw losses in 11 out of 14 years, with an average return of -4.87%. It’s one of the weakest seasonal windows in the entire commodity complexes.
July Soybeans (ZSN25) settled at 1022 (-2), high of 1030, low of 1017. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1016 (-2). Cash price is at 999 (-22)
July Bean Meal (ZMN25) settled at 270.9 (-5.1) high of 276, low of 270.6
July Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 52.52 (+0.70) high of 52.59, low of 51.40
The July Meal to Oil ratio (52.12% Meal – 47.88% Oil)
ZSN25 Moving Averages – (1044) 5-day, (1051) 20-day, (1053) 50-day, (1048) 100-day, (1047) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1035) 5-day, (1037) 20-day, (1036) 50-day, (1032) 100-day, (1033) 200-day
ZMN25 Moving Averages – (278.8) 5-day, (289.5) 20-day, (293.6) 50-day, (300.6) 100-day, (309.2) 200-day
ZLN25 Moving Averages – (52.84) 5-day, (49.98) 20-day, (49.51) 50-day, (47.39) 100-day, (45.51) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 17th showed soybeans Managed Money traders bought 33,526 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 59,165 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -17,367 contracts bringing their net short position to -160,854 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 43,994 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 17th showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,273 contracts, moving to a net short position of -107,081 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 19,470 contracts bringing their net short position to -42,635. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of – 78,428 contracts.
For bean oil, the Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 17h showed Managed Money traders were net long 46,143 contracts after buying 21,375 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 70,535 contracts.
CORN –
July Corn (ZCN25) settled at 409 (-0.75), high of 414, low of 408. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 421 (-1). Cash price is 433 (-6)
Corn was up 2 ¼ cents in the overnight, but lost its gains during regular trading hours. South America’s harvest is underway in Brazil and Argentina. Brazil’s second crop corn is estimated at a record 123.3 mmt.
The average estimate for corn stocks on Monday is 4,641 million bushels. Analyst estimates fall between 4,473 and 4,798 mb. Last year, the USDA estimated 4,997 mb on the June report. The average estimate for acreage is 95.350 million acres, with analysts estimating between 93.750 and 96.8 million acres. The USDA estimated 95.326 million acres in March and 90.594 ma last year. 7 of the last 10 years have showed an increase in corn acres above the average guess on the June acreage reports.
Ethanol demand is strong. Average daily production for the week ending June 20th, was 1.081 mb, making a new high for this week of the year. Ethanol stocks were 24.0404 mb, also making a new high for this week of the year.
ZCN25 Moving Averages – (416) 5-day, (433) 20-day, (452) 50-day, (468) 100-day, (462) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (429) 5-day, (438) 20-day, (444) 50-day, (451) 100-day, (448) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 17th showed that corn Managed Money sold -20,768 contracts bringing their net position to -184,788 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 15,051 contracts bringing their net position to -63,293 Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -187,071 contracts.
WHEAT –
July Chicago Wheat (ZWN25) settled at 521 (-7), with a high of 531, low of 520. September Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 536 (-7). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 522 (-10). July KC Wheat (KEN25) settled at 518 (-6). July Spring Wheat (MWN25) settled at 606 (-4)
The wheat market was lower again today, however volume has been falling, suggesting some of the selling may be starting to slow. The market has weakened on news of Russian production increases. A weaker dollar is helpful, but has not provided meaningful support. The weather outlook is favorable for harvest, except for the eastern part of Kansas which could see some rain delays.
The average estimate for wheat is stocks is 836 million bushels. Analysts are estimating between 805 and 852 mb. Last June, the USDA estimated wheat stocks at 696 mb. All wheat acreage is estimated at 45.438 million acres, with analysts looking for between 45 and 45 ma. In March, acreage was estimated at 45.350 and 46.079 ma last year.
ZWN25 Moving Averages – (541) 5-day, (541) 20-day, (538) 50-day, (558) 100-day, (574) 200-day
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (557) 5-day, (556) 20-day, (553) 50-day, (573) 100-day, (588) 200-day
KEN25 Moving Averages – (538) 5-day, (538) 20-day, (537) 50-day, (567) 100-day, (579) 200-day
MWN25 Moving Averages – (621) 5-day, (624) 20-day, (609) 50-day, (617) 100-day, (625) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 17th showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -81,353 contracts, having decreased their short position by 12,658 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -7,525 contracts to bring their net long position to 26,570 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -89,832 contracts.
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