The USDA figures will be known soon and there will be a reaction. Yet, what moves the markets as we get into the heart of the growing season? Of course, we’ll be following weather forecasts across the globe and we’ll be focusing on trade agreements or the lack thereof and the things that the administration might implement to soften the blow to the agricultural community. Stay tuned.
Regardless, spreads remain on the defensive yet there’s little to gain bear spreading anything at the moment. Is it worth bull spreading anything? Not yet but, we’re watching every day. Please remember that wheat storage rates can change to the upside right now and full carry increase. Corn and bean rates are static so, in theory, bull spreading these are less risky than wheat but, nothing is riskless!
We usually get our first loads of new crop hard red winter wheat dumped in Fort Worth about May 15. Harvest tends to proceed northward about 20 to 25 miles a day and the parallel from Springfield. Illinois and Indianapolis, Indiana is usually getting into the fields on the Fourth of July , give or take a couple of days. The best situation for a quality crop is for warm and dry weather a couple of weeks right after the plant turns after heading . What’s bad is hot and moist during harvest as disease issues increase. And it looks like Texas might be getting a little wetter than normal next week. It’s a day by day concern and quality matters a lot in the wheat market! Rain makes grain unless there’s too much and lodging happens or the crop has turned and then too damp makes junk!
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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