WALSH PURE SPREADER
Pure Hedge Division
RICH MORAN 10/29/2025
JAN-MAR’26 Soybean Oil Spread (ZLF26-ZLH26)
Today we are looking at the JAN-MAR’26 Soybean Oil Spread (ZLF26-ZLH26). We are basing this trade on the current Fully-Carry levels. We are looking to hopefully risk a small amount with the possibly of turning it into a nice winner. Full Carry for the JAN ’26 Soybean Oil – (minus) MAR ’26 Soybean Oil Spread is 0.44 cents (or 44 – 100ths of a cent). Every tic represents 1/100th of a cent and is worth $6.00.
Today, the spread settled at -0.51 cents. That is 115.9% of full carry. So, we settled 15.9% above full carry. This spread does go above full carry-on occasion and how far it will go we never know, but I believe the risk/reward for getting long ZLF226-ZLH26 at these levels might be something to try, using a fairly short stop below the 52-week low with the hope of a nice move up (less negative).
That being said, we are a little below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages. I am suggesting that if we can trade above and settle above these moving averages, we try to get long this spread. We can pick our exact exit points when and if we are able to put this trade on.
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Following up on the still active past trade ideas:
- 10/24/2025: LEZ25-HEZ25 (DEC Live Cattle – DEC Live Hogs Spread)
Today the spread settled 150.125, still below both the 14-day that ended the day at 153.750 and the 21-day that ended the day at 153.700.
Last month (9/5/25-9/10/25) we tracked selling OCT Live Cattle and buying OCT Lean Hogs against them. I call this the STORK trade …. STeak – (minus) pORK. I think this trade could possibly be a safer way to slip some sales in the Live Cattle market into or position by hedging them with some buys in Lean Hog market.
On Friday (10/24//25), I said, “If the DEC-STORK opens on Monday below 155.700, which is below the 14-day and the 21-day moving averages, I suggest we try to sell it at 155.000 or better. That is sell DEC Live Cattle and buy DEC Lean Hogs (LEZ25-HEZ25) at 155.00 or better. If we are not able to sell it on the opening, continue to offer it at 155.000.”
I am adjusting these levels …. Tomorrow, lower our offer to 153.600 or better on the opening. If we are not able to sell it on the opening, continue to offer it at 153.600.
Risk 6.000 or $2,400 Per Spread To Make 18.000 or $7,200 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
- 10/3/2025: ZCZ25-ZOZ25 (DEC Corn-Oats Spread)
I think if we can break through this support and trade below, as well as settle below, both of the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, this support could turn into resistance. At that point, it might be a good time to get short the ZCZ25-ZOZ25 spread (sell ZCZ25 and buy ZOZ25).
Today the spread settled 114¼, below both the 14-day that ended the day at 118¼, and the 21-day that ended the day at 120.
If we open at 118 or lower, which is below both moving averages, I suggest offering the spread on the open at 116 or better. If we are not filled on the open, continue to work a 116 offer.
Risk 8 cents or $400 To Make 24 cents or $1,200, plus fees and commission.
On Monday, we opened at 120½ and traded up past 128½ so we were stopped out for a loss of $400 per spread, plus fees and commissions.
- 10/1/2025: SBH26-SBK26 (MAR-MAY’26 Sugar #11 Spread)
Today’s settlement: .33, Long at .42
On 10/1/25 I said “I think it might be a good play to bid today’s settlement (42 cents) or better when the corn market opens.”
“If we get filled, risk 24 cents or $268.80 Per Spread to make 50 cents or $560 Per Spread plus fees and commissions.
On 10/2/25 the market opened at .41, so we are long at .42.
Risk 24 cents (price of .18) or $268.80 Per Spread to make 50 cents (price of .92) or $560.00 Per Spread plus fees and commissions.
- 9/24/25: KEZ25-ZWZ25 (DEC’25 Kansas City-Chicago Wheat Spread)
Today’s settlement: -9½, Long at -14½
On 9/24/25, KEZ25-ZWZ25 settled -12¾.
I suggested placing an offer to buy KEZ25-ZWZ25 at -14½ on 9/25/25. The spread traded -15, so we are long at -14½.
Risking 8 cents (price of -22½) or $400 to make 24 cents (price of +9½) or $1,200 plus fees and commissions.
- 9/17/2025: ZWZ25-ZCZ25 (DEC Wheat-Corn Spread)
If we can get the ZWZ25-ZCZ25 spread to trade and settle above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, I think getting long this spread with a relatively short stop could be a good play. I believe this might offer us a nice risk to reward trade.
If we open at 88 or higher, which is above both moving averages, I suggest buying the spread on the open at 88½ or better. If we are not filled on the open, continue to work an 88½ bid.
We opened at 90 and have not traded 88½ yet this week, so we are an 88 ½ bid at this time.
If we get filled on this trade, risk 11 cents (price of 77½ or $550 Per Spread to make 33 cents (price of 1231½ or $1,650 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
- 9/10/25: ZCZ25-ZCH26 (DEC-MAR Corn Spread)
Today’s settlement: -12¾, Long at -17½
On Wednesday (9/10/25) I suggested that if the ZCZ25-ZCH26 opens at -17½ (Wednesday’s settlement) or higher, trying to get long the spread (buying Dec25-Corn versus selling Mar’26-Corn) at -17½.
The spread opened at -17½ and traded lower, so we are long at -17½.
We were risking 2 cents (price of -19½) or $100 Per Spread to make 6 cents (price of -11½) or $300 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
On Friday (10/17/25) I raised our stop to -17½ for a scratch. I hate to turn a winner into a loser.
On Wednesday (10/22/25) we raised our stop another 2 cents to -15½ for a 2 cents winner. This was our original risk on this trade.
So now we are looking to make 2 cents ($100 Per Spread) at -15½ or to make 6 cents ($300 Per Spread) at -11½, plus fees and commissions.
- 8/27/25: ZSF26-ZSN26 (JAN-JULY’26 Soybean Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -30¾, Long at -40¼
On Friday (10/3/25) I said, “yesterday (10/2/25) this spread, ZSF26-ZSN26 (JAN-JULY’26 Soybean Spread), settled above both the 14-day and the 21-day moving averages at -39. I suggest buying the spread at -39 or better when the Soybean market opens. If you do not get filled on the opening, work a -39 bid.”
On Monday (10/3/25) the spread opened at -40½, so we are long at -40¼.
I said to risk 4 cents (price of -44¼) or $200 to make 12 cents (price of -28¼) or $600 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
On Wednesday (10/22/25) I said “we are only risking 4 cents on this trade and we have a 4¼ cent lead on the trade so we are raising our stop to -40¼ for a scratch. I hate to turn a winner into a loser.
Now we are risking a scratch at -40¼ to make 12 cents ($600) at -28¼, plus fees and commissions.
Yesterday, Tuesday (10/28/25) ZSF26-ZSN26 traded up to -27, so we were filled at -28¼ and reach our objective on this trade. We made 12 cents or $600 Per Spread.
- 8/6/25: ZSX25-ZSF26 (NOV-JAN Soybean Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -14¼, Long at -17½
The spread settled above the 14-day and the 21-day at -17¾ on 8/21/25. You should be long at -17½ from the open on 8/22/25.
Risking 3½ cents (price of -21) or $175 to make 9 ½ cents (price of -8) or $475 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
- 7/23/25: ZWZ25-ZWH26 (DEC’25-MAR’26 Wheat Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -15½, Long at -18½
Risking 3½ cents (price of -22) or $175 Per Spread to make 10 cents (price of -8½) or $500 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
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Rich Moran
Senior Commodities Broker
Direct: (312)985-0298
Cell: (773)502-5321
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