WALSH PURE SPREADER
Pure Hedge Division
RICH MORAN 10/1/2025
MAR-MAY’26 Sugar #11 Spread (SBH26-SBK26)
From 4/2/25, March Sugar (SBH26) trended down from $19.90 to $15.98 on 9/8/25. From 4/2/25, the MAR-MAY’26 Sugar #11 Spread (SBH26-SBK26) went from 99 cents down to 21 cents on 7/2/25. 21 cents is the 52-week low in this spread. Since then, both the outright March contract (SBH26) and the SBH26-SBK26 spread have been hovering around these lows with the outright Sugar contract trending slightly lower, but the spread trending slightly higher. The spread has actually settled above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages every day since 9/8/25. It appears that the spread could hang tough even if the outright sugar market continues to soften. If the sugar market as a whole, turns around and strengthens, I believe the spread can strengthen as well.
The recent Commitment of Traders Report shows managed money short 150K sugar contracts. If they start to exit these shorts in sugar, I wouldn’t want to be in the way. Today’s settlement of March Sugar is $16.13 and is almost $4.00 below the seasonal average of $20.00 for October 1st. This is based on the last 5 annual March Sugar contracts.
I believe as long as we are above both the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, we should try to get long the SBH26-SBK26 spread, stopping ourselves out just below the 52-week low of 21 cents.
I think it might be a good play to bid today’s settlement (42 cents) or better when the corn market opens.
If we get filled, risk 24 cents (18) or $268.80 Per Spread to make 50 cents (92) or $560.00 Per Spread plus fees and commissions.
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Following up on the still active past trade ideas:
- 9/24/25: KEZ25-ZWZ25 (DEC’25 Kansas City-Chicago Wheat Spread)
Today’s settlement: -14½, Long at -14½
On Wednesday (9/24/25) KEZ25-ZWZ25 settled -12¾.
I suggested placing an offer to buy KEZ25-ZWZ25 at -14½ on Thursday (9/25/25). The spread traded -15, so we are long at -14½.
Since we got filled, we are risking 8 cents (-22½) or $400 to make 24 cents (+9½) or $1,200 plus fees and commissions.
- 9/17/2025: ZWZ25-ZCZ25 (DEC Wheat-Corn Spread)
Today the spread settled 91¾, below the 14-day that settled 97 and the 21-day that settled 99¾.
If we can get the ZWZ25-ZCZ25 spread to trade and settle above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, I think getting long this spread with a relatively short stop could be a good play. I believe this might offer us a nice risk to reward trade. I think we should risk about 15 cents or $750 Per Spread to make about 50 cents or $2,500 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
- 9/12/25: ZLF26:H26:K26 (JAN-MAR-MAY Soybean Oil Butterfly)
Today’s settlement: -.20, Long at -.20
This is purely a Full Carry Comparison trade suggestion …. On Friday (9/12/25), I suggest trying to get long the ZLF26:H26:K26 butterfly on Monday at Friday’s settlement of -.20 or better (buying the JAN-MAR Soybean Oil spread .20 below where you sell the MAR-MAY Soybean Oil spread). Monday opened at -.20 and that was the high, so we are long at -20.
Risking 5 tics (-.25) or $30 Per Spread to make 20 tics (00.00) or $120. Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
- 9/10/25: ZCZ25-ZCH26 (DEC-MAR Corn Spread)
Today’s settlement: -16¼, Long at -17½
On Wednesday (9/10/25) I suggested that if the ZCZ25-ZCH26 opens at -17½ (Wednesday’s settlement) or higher, trying to get long the spread (buying Dec25-Corn versus selling Mar’26-Corn) at -17½.
The spread opened at -17½ and traded lower, so we are long at -17½.
Risking 2 cents (-19½) or $100 Per Spread to make 6 cents (-11½) or $300 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
- 9/5/25: LEV25-HEV25 (OCT Live Cattle-OCT Lean Hogs)
Today’s settlement: 132.675, Short at 139.900
On Friday (9/5/25) I suggested trying to get short the LEV25-HEV25 Spread at 139.900 or better on Monday (9/8/25. We were able to sell the spread at 139.900 on Monday.
Risking 6.000 (145.900) or $2,400 Per Spread to make 18.000 (121.900) or $7,200 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
9/12/25: we moved our stop down to our entrance price of 139.900 for a scratch. I never like to turn a winner into a loser.
- 8/27/25: ZSF26-ZSN26 (JAN-JULY’26 Soybean Spread)
Today the spread settled -40½, below the 14-day that settled -39¾ and the 21-day that settled -38½.
If we can get back above and settle above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, I think we should try buying the spread with a short stop below these moving averages.
- 8/6/25: ZSX25-ZSF26 (NOV-JAN Soybean Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -17¾, Long at -17½
The spread settled above the 14-day and the 21-day at -17¾ on 8/21/25. You should be long at -17½ from the open on 8/22/25.
Risking 3½ cents (-21) or $175 to make 9 ½ cents (-8) or $475
- 7/23/25: ZWZ25-ZWH26 (DEC’25-MAR’26 Wheat Spread))
Today’s Settlement: -18, Long at -18½
Risking 3½ cents (-22) or $175 Per Spread to make 10 cents (-8½) or $500 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
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Rich Moran
Senior Commodities Broker
Direct: (312)985-0298
Cell: (773)502-5321
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