John Wooden opined that the gifts of hard work, dedication and discipline are patience and faith and that is just what wheat traders might need right now as all the stars are lining up for a rally but there’s no need to rush it! Typically, we need to feed a bull everyday but this wheat rally feels hesitant as corn and beans appear to be constrained by the weight of the South American harvest. Winter wheat, typically. in the United States breaks dormancy in March and April and we’ve been blessed with great moisture in the Fall and this Winter and what few acres were planted should start the growing season in very good shape yet, it’s the weather in late April and May when the anxiety kicks in.
The US is the market to come to for a couple of months as Argentina might have some quality issues and the Black Sea is starting to deal with their problems. The USA is open for business and we aim to please!
Corn and bean s are still facing harvest pressure from South America and some traders sense that we need to get over half way complete before end users start getting itchy to take some extended coverage. Reports in the US are that there’s still a lot of corn and beans in temporary storage which needs to move before the weather warms and roads get posted. Spreads may remain on the defensive for a few more months.
We are surviving without the USDA statisticians, analysts and economists! We cannot survive without inspectors yet, they are paid piecemeal and the cash trade has yet to be disrupted. Resistance is still anticipated at 524-527 WH, 386 CH and 922-925 SH.
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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