TUESDAY AM RADAR — CLICK HERE TO SEE FAST LOADING RADAR
The mid morning radar shows some moderate rain showers and a few weak storms over the southern half of WI. There are some moderate rains and locally heavy storms over far southeastern NC into central & east SC, central & east GA & the FL panhandle.
MONDAY MAX TEMPS
70s over MN, WI, north IA… 80s over all other areas EXCEPT for 90s over west half of OK and sw TX.
RAINFALL LAST 24 HRS — ending 0700 20 JUNE
The mid morning radar shows some moderate rain showers and a few weak storms over the southern half of WI. There are some moderate rains and locally heavy storms over far southeastern NC into central & east SC, central & east GA & the FL panhandle.
1-5D = The model agreement between the GFS and the European over the next 5 days is pretty good. But there are some key differences. First the northern band of rain which is associated with the cold front will bring 0.5-2.0″/12-50mm with 60% coverage over north IA, south MN, central and south WI into central MI. The new data shows a second area of moderate rain from central & east KS into west NEB with about the same sort of coverage of 60% and the same rainfall amounts.
But the main issue or uncertainty remains the track of Tropical Depression #3 (TD3) which may or may not become tropical storm Cindy over the next two days. As we talked about all last week … and again over the weekend … and on Monday TD3 is the big wild card. The hurricane models continue to shift west towards European solution and that model has been the furthest west of all of them. They take landfall into southeastern or central Texas then turn the system to a N and then into a NE direction.
The reason why the WEST track is significant for grain traders and farmers is that a further west track means a better chance that the rains left over from TD3 can get further to the north. In other words IF Cindy were to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle and then turn to the N… then NE… it would only bring rain into GA … the Carolinas and VA. But by swinging out to the west and making landfall in central or the southeastern TX coast the rains have a much better chance of taking a wider turn and bringing some of the rain into the southern portions of the ECB.
The GFS is more bullish or aggressive with the rains spreading north of the Ohio River. The 0z TUES GFS show light to moderate rains over much of ILL, IND and OH but the model does show a band of 2-7″/50-175mm rains over far se ILL … far sw IND & far south OH. The European model as you can see on the right side …is significantly different in that the rains do not cross the Ohio River. As a result all of MO, most of ILL, most of IND and OH are rain free over the next 5 days.
It is still impossible at this point in time to know which solution is going to be correct and a shift of the north end of the rain shield of 50 to 100 miles could have significant implications.
That being said the vast majority of the data shows that the super heavy rains will impact all of the Gulf coast states – se TX, all LA, ARK, MS, AL, GA, TN, KY. The uncertainty remains how far to the north beyond the Ohio River these rains reach. Some areas could see 10″/ 250mm of rain.
6-10DAY = The operational or regular GFS model has a significant area of rain over the WCB into northern ILL in this timeframe. All other areas are dry but the GFS shows a band of 1-6″ 25-150mm over 80% of east NEB …all of IA … and 1 -2″/ 25-50mm rains into northern ILL. The operational European model is vastly different again showing large areas of ILL, IND, OH, KY, MO, IA, MN and all the Plains to be completely dry. The model only has a few moderate showers up to 1″/ 25mm inch over far east nw ILL and central MO.
The GFS ensemble however shows that the operational GFS solution is nonsense. This model also shows most of the Midwest and the ECB stay dry. This model has most of OH, IN, ILL, KY and MO and south IA seeing less than 0.5″/ 12mm in the 6-10D. And as you can see the European ensemble strongly agrees with this idea.
Therefore we reject the 0z operational or regular GFS model with its depiction of significant rains in the 6-10 day over the WCB. In fact the 6Z operational GFS model has taken the rains out of the WCB completely. The European ensemble however does match the operational run in that it shows mostly light rain if any across the heart of the Midwest and the Plains in this timeframe and the significant rain being restricted to WI & MI. Even there the rainfall amounts are generally under 0.75″/20mm which is below normal rainfall for five day interval at the end of JUNE.
11-15 DAY = The weather models remain in excellent agreement about the significant rain coming in the 11 to 15 day for all of the Midwest. Both models agree that the heaviest rains will be over the WCB. The European model has the best rains up to 2″/ 50mm over east KS, most of central & north MO, east IA into nw ILL. But beyond that, the entire Midwest as well as the eastern portions of NEB, SD, Dakota and as far east as west PA all see significant rain in this time frame. The GFS ensemble is similar but it has shifted to the north and has the heaviest rains over its central & north IA into much of WI.
I favor the European ensembles solution here in the 11 to 15 day because it seems to me to be far more consistent. The GFS ensemble keeps shifting the area of heaviest rains back and forth across different portions of the central plains and the WCB whereas the European ensembles been far more consistent and reliable.
WEEK 3 AND WEEK 4 – shows slow drying and warming in week 3… week 4 still wet over the Delta into the ECB, dry over the WCB with near seasonal temps.